摘要
Pursuant to the Paris Agreement,China committed itself to peak its carbon emissions by around 2030 and to increase the non-fossil share ofprimary energy to 20%at the same time.The government has supported the international agreement by setting and strengthening the domesticpolicy targets for an earlier peak and faster reduction,aiming to contain the average global temperature increase to well below 2℃.We developa Kaya Inequality method to assess the time of peak and pace of reduction of China's energy-related CO2emissions based on the national energypolicy targets for 2030.We find that,despite the minor fluctuations,the current plateau essentially represents the peak emissions and should entera phase of steady decline by around 2025,given current trends in energy consumption and decarbonization.Such developments would beconsistent with the strengthened national policy target to achieve 50%of renewable power generation by 2030.However,the basic policy targetsea 20%share of non-fossil energy and 6 Gtce in total energy consumption by 2030ewould be insufficient to peak carbon emissions by around 2030.The synergy and interplay between domestic policy target setting and international climate commitments shed light on the need to elevatenational climate ambitions under the Paris Agreement and beyond.
基金
This project is supported by National Natural ScienceFoundation of China Innovative Research Groups Program‘Research on Chinese Public Policy Theory and GovernanceMechanism’(71721002)
The Clean DevelopmentMechanism Funding Program‘Study on the Possibility ofChina's Early Emission Peak in the Context of Global Low-Carbon Development’(2013081)。
作者简介
Corresponding author: LIU Tian-Le.E-mail address:tliuaw@ust.hk。
