摘要
正确把握负债与农户家庭贫困脆弱性的关系,有助于为精准扶贫和防范重大金融风险提供政策量化依据。文章借助CHFS2017年农户微观调查数据,采用倾向评分匹配法分析了农户家庭负债对贫困脆弱性的影响机制。结果表明:家庭负债与家庭贫困脆弱性呈现出显著的"U"形曲线关系。即当家庭负债低于一定临界值时,随着家庭负债增加会显著降低其贫困脆弱性,但随着负债的进一步增加超过临界值时,则会显著提高家庭贫困脆弱性。同时还引入家庭负债二次项,求出该"U"形曲线拐点对应的家庭负债的1.62万元。另外,农户家庭的农业负债、工商业负债、房产负债与其贫困脆弱性同样呈现出显著的"U"形曲线关系,其拐点对应的负债依次为1.18万元、2.37万元、1.46万元。
A accurate grasp of the relationship between debt and the poverty vulnerability of farmers will help to provide quantitative basis for policies of targeted poverty alleviation and prevention of major financial risks.This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of the farmers’debt on poverty vulnerability by using the propensity score matching method based on the CHFS 2017 micro survey data of household.The results show that the farmers’debt and their poverty vulnerability show a significant"U"curve relationship.That is,when the farmers’debt is below a certain point,it will significantly reduce its poverty vulnerability as the debt increases,but as the debt increases further beyond the point,it will significantly increase household poverty vulnerability.At the same time,the quadratic term of farmers’debt is also introduced to find the debt of 16,200 yuan corresponding to the inflection point of the"U"curve.In addition,a significant"U"curve relationship can also be found between farmers’agricultural debt,industrial and commercial debt,and real estate debt of rural households and their poverty vulnerabilities,with corresponding inflection points of 1.18,2.37,and 1.46 ten thousand yuan.
作者
姚敏
Yao Min(Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)
出处
《新疆农垦经济》
2020年第5期74-85,共12页
Xinjiang State Farms Economy
基金
重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目资助(项目编号:CYS19330)。
关键词
家庭负债
贫困脆弱性
精准扶贫
金融风险
farmers’debt
poverty vulnerability
targeted poverty alleviation
financial risk.
作者简介
姚敏(1993-),男,重庆丰都人,硕士研究生,研究方向:微观计量、区域经济。
