社保缴费负担、企业退出进入与地区经济增长——基于社保征收体制改革的证据被引量：69

Social Security Contribution,Firm Entry and Exit,and Economic Growth——Evidence from Social Security Reform of China

导出

摘要在减税降费政策背景下,本文研究降低企业社保缴费负担是否有助于激发市场活力和稳定经济增长。借助社保征收体制改革,文章采用双重差分的方法,识别了社保缴费负担对企业退出和进入行为的影响,并在此基础进一步探讨了对经济增长的影响。本文发现社保缴费负担会使企业退出市场的概率显著提高,但主要影响的是高缴费率地区的企业、劳动力密集型企业和效率较低企业。社保缴费负担也会对企业进入行为造成负面影响,同样这一影响主要发生在高缴费率地区和劳动密集型行业。社保缴费对经济增长的影响,会随缴费率不同而发生显著变化。在缴费率较高时,企业存量减少的效应占优,进而对地区经济增长造成了负面影响;但在缴费率较低时,效率提升效应占优,进而对经济增长有促进作用。本文结论表明,在企业社保缴费率较高的背景下,降低社保缴费负担有助于提高市场活力,进而稳定经济增长。 As economic growth declines the government expects to stimulate market vitality by reducing enterprises'burden.Does reducing the burden of corporate social security contributions contribute to the realization of the above policy objectives?Based on the social security collection system reform in China,this paper uses the difference in difference method to identify the impact of social security contributions on the exit and entry decisions of enterprises,and further explores the corresponding macroeconomic consequences.We find that social security contributions will significantly increase the probability of exiting the market of enterprises,especially for those enterprises in regions with high contribution rates,labor-intensive enterprises and low-efficiency enterprises.Further analysis show that social security contributions also have a negative impact on firm entry.As high rates of social security contribution tend to push enterprises out of the market and the number of enterprises entering the business decreases,economic growth declines.But social security contributions would increase economic growth when the contribution rate is low.The findings indicate that reducing the burden of social security contributions is conducive to improving market vitality and stabilizing economic growth.

作者唐珏封进 TANG Jue;FENG Jin(Shanghai University of Finance & Economics, Shanghai, China;Fudan University, Shanghai, China)

机构地区上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院复旦大学经济学院

出处《经济学动态》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第6期47-60,共14页 Economic Perspectives

基金教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“积极应对人口老龄化战略行动研究”(17JZD028) 博士后基金项目“社保征收机构改革对企业的影响、机制及优化路径研究”(2019M661451)对本文的资助。

关键词社保征收机构改革社保缴费企业进入企业退出经济增长 Social Security Collection System Reform Social Security Contribution Firm Exit Firm Entry Economic Growth

分类号 F27 [经济管理—企业管理]

作者简介唐珏,上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,邮政编码:200433,电子邮箱:tlu8623@126.com;封进,复旦大学经济学院,邮政编码:200433,电子邮箱:jfeng@fudan.edu.cn。