摘要
该文选取了2010-2015年贵州省贵阳站的逐日最高气温、总云量、降水量、湿度等资料,统计不同天空状况下的日最高气温的变化特点,并采用SPSS逐步回归筛选出影响最高气温的关键因子,建立回归模型。得出:①贵阳站阴雨天气出现频率要远多于晴和多云天气,尤其是冬春季,晴和多云天气多出现在夏秋季。在同一月份,晴好天气下和阴雨天气下,平均日最高气温有较大的差异,冬春季差异最大,平均最高相差15℃;②影响因子中前1 d日最高、最低气温及地面最高、最低温度与日最高气温的相关性较高,其中相关性最高的因子为前1 d日最高气温,相关性最高的季节为秋季;③在晴和多云天气下时,前1 d日最高气温对日最高气温的影响最大,而在阴天和雨天天气下时,则是前1 d日最低气温的影响最大。在不同的天空状况下,晴天天气下的拟合效果最好,估计误差值都在2℃以内,从季节上来看,夏季的拟合效果最好,平均估计误差值为1.6℃。
The maximum temperature, total cloud amount, precipitation, humidity etc. of Guiyang Station from 2010 to 2015 were utilized to analyze the variation characteristics of maximum temperature in different sky conditions, and the key factors affecting maximum temperature by SPSS were screened out, and the regression model was established. It is concluded that: ①The frequency of rainy and cold weather in Guiyang is much more than that of sunny and cloudy weather especially in winter and spring, and sunny and cloudy weather mostly occurs in summer and autumn. In the same month, there is a big difference in the average maximum temperature between sunnyweather and rainy weather. The difference between winter and spring is the greatest, and the average maximum difference is 15 ℃. ②The factors that have a higher correlation with the maximum temperature are the maximum and minimum temperaturethe and ground temperature of the previous day. The highest correlation factor is the highest daily temperature of the previous day, and the highest correlation season is autumn. ③In clear and cloudy, the maximum temperature of the previous day has the greatest impact on the maximum temperature, while in cloudy and rainy weather, the minimum temperature of the previous day has the greatest impact on the maximum temperature. In different sky conditions, the fitting effect is the best in sunny, and the estimated error is less than 2 ℃, and the best season for fitting is summer, the average estimated error is 1.6 ℃.
作者
王璇
左晋
王丽媛
燕鹤
周庶
陈翱章
WANG Xuan;ZUO Jin;WANG Liyuan;YAN He;ZHOU Shu;CHEN Aozhang(Bijie Meteorological Bureau,Bijie 551700,China;Guizhou Ecometeorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Qixingguan Meteorological Bureau,Bijie 551700,China;Weining Meteorological Bureau,Weining 553100,China)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2020年第2期91-94,共4页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
关键词
贵阳
日最高气温
天空状况
影响因子
Guiyang
maximum temperature
sky conditions
influencing factors
作者简介
第一作者:王璇(1991—),女,助工,主要从事中短期天气预报工作,E-mail:332888762@qq.com。
