摘要
基于EC细网格模式2m温度产品,对2015年天津市244个地面自动站逐3 h温度预报进行释用分析。结果表明,预报质量随预报时效增加而降低。对白天预报略优于夜间,且白天08:00起报效果优于20:00起报(夜间相反)。预报效果夏秋优于冬春,其中7月预报效果最好,12月最差。蓟州北部四季误差均较大,初步考虑为山区地形原因;天津市区、滨海新区塘沽温度预报系统性偏低,考虑可能受城市热岛效应及海陆风影响,市区春冬季误差明显、塘沽春季误差明显。
In this article,based on 2m temperature products of EC fine mesh model,interpretation and analysis of daily 3-hourly temperature forecast of 244 surface automatic weather stations in Tianjin in 2015 is carried out.The results showed that the quality of forecast decreases with the increase of the forecast valid time.The prediction performance during the day time is slightly better than during the night time,and forecast effect of temperature which initiated at 08:00 is better than that initiated at 20:00 during the day time(on the contrary during the night time).Summer and autumn prediction performance is better than spring and winter prediction performance,the best is in July,and the worst is in December.The Prediction of the northern region of Jizhou District has large errors in four seasons,mountainous terrain effecet is preliminarily considered as the reason;The temperature forecast of TianJin City center downtown and Tanggu in Binhai new area is lower systematically,the urban heat island effect and sea and land breeze are considered possible effects.The errors of central city area are obvious in spring and winter,and the errors of Tanggu are obvious in spring.
作者
王婧
WANG Jing(Dongli Meteorology Bureau,Tianjin 300300,China)
出处
《天津科技》
2018年第12期39-42,46,共5页
Tianjin Science & Technology
关键词
EC细网格
2m温度
检验评估
EC fine mesh
2m temperature
test and evaluation
