摘要
洪灾损失具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性,其评估标准难以确定。采用加权模糊核聚类(WFKCA)方法对四川省历史洪灾样本集进行模糊聚类迭代运算,提取其中的内在分布特性,从而计算出洪灾损失各类别间的边界值,作为洪灾损失评估的参考标准。为了使评估工作具有一定普适性,针对性地选取了评估指标体系,并且对绝对值及相对值2种标准进行了探讨。考虑到指标权重对评估工作的关键性,利用模糊层次分析法计算出的主观综合判断矩阵推导出各指标权重的专家组指导性范围,并用来约束WFKCA对客观权重的搜索范围,得到在满足专家组主观决策偏好的前提下尽可能对代表客观性的聚类效果进行优化的主、客观性间柔性耦合的权重。实例分析证明本文提出的方法计算出的洪灾评估标准较为可靠,具有一定的参考价值。
The evaluation standard of flood disaster loss is difficult to determine due to its randomness,fuzziness and uncertainty.In this paper the internal distribution characteristics of historic flood sample set in Sichuan Province as a case study were extracted through fuzzy clustering iteration calculation using the weighted fuzzy kernel clustering algorithm(WFKCA).The boundary values between different flood loss levels were calculated as the reference standard in flood loss assessment.The evaluation indexes were selected specifically to make the assessment universal,and two kinds of standards(absolute value and relative value)of data set were discussed,respectively.In view that index weights are crucial to the assessment,a flexible coupling weighting method(FCWM)is proposed.Firstly,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)algorithm was adopted to calculate the subjective judgment matrix for deducing the expert guidance range of each index weight;then the guidance range was applied to constrain the objective weight search range of WFKCA.The FCWM could get the optimized cluster effect as much as possible on the premise of meeting the subjective decision-making preferences.Experimental simulations show that the assessment standard calculated by FCWM is relatively reliable and valuable for the decision-making reference.
作者
廖力
周雪芹
邹强
高峰
纪锋
LIAO Li;ZHOU Xue-qin;ZOU Qiang;GAO Feng;JI Feng(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China;Engineering and Technology College, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China;Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan 430010, China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期37-44,共8页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
湖北省教育厅科学研究项目(B2017456)
湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(16Q096)。
关键词
洪灾评估标准
加权模糊核聚类
模糊聚类迭代运算
模糊层次分析法
柔性耦合权重
flood disaster assessment standard
weighted fuzzy kernel clustering algorithm(WFKCA)
fuzzy clustering iterative calculation
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)
flexible coupling weighting method(FCWM)
作者简介
廖力(1979-),男,湖北武汉人,副教授,博士,主要从事模糊综合评价、洪灾风险分析等研究,E-mail:amazon2008@163.com;通信作者:周雪芹(1984-),女,湖北武汉人,副教授,硕士,主要从事风险分析与管理研究,E-mail:conmie2008@163.com。
