摘要
识别用水总量驱动因子、揭示驱动机制对用水管控和用水模拟具有重要理论和现实意义.水文气象和社会经济发展两类因子通过供水与需水影响了区域用水总量.针对水文气象因子贡献值定量测算难题,在利用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI方法)识别农田灌溉、工业和居民生活用水的驱动因子的基础上,建立了区域用水总量驱动因识别模型,识别出了12个驱动因子,并将其应用于山东省.1995~2010年山东省用水总量下降了45.7×108m3,工业用水效率和灌溉水有效利用系数的提高是主要抑制因子,分别使用水总量降低了74.4×108m3和35.7×108m3;工业规模扩张是主要促进因子,使用水总量增加了61.0×108m3.选择年降水代表水文气象因子,通过分析年降水与用水量和驱动因子相关性,识别能够反映水文气象影响的用水行业与驱动因子.发现年降水通过单位面积净灌溉用水量与灌溉比例2个因子,影响了农田灌溉用水和用水总量,这2个因子贡献值之和可用于测算水文气象因子贡献.1995~2010年水文气象因子贡献率为42.7%,与社会经济因子贡献基本相当.2002~2003年山东省降水量由420.2mm增加至936.3mm,用水总量和农田灌溉用水量发生分别降低了36.6×108m3和28.0×108m3,水文气象因子贡献率为70.9%.该模型实现了区域用水总量驱动因子的分行业与分类识别.用水管控和用水分析中必须考虑水文气象要素影响.
Identifyingthe regional total water use drivers and revealing its driving mechanism are important for regional total water use control and water use process simulation.The regional total water use is affected by the hydro-climatic inter-annual and intra-annual variability(HC)and socio-economic factors.But the contribution of HC is hard to measure and less studied.A driver identification model was developed by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method to decompose the drivers of farmland irrigation,industrial water use and domestic water use.12 drivers including HC and socio-economic factors was identified.The Shandong Province was take as an illustrative example.From 1995 to 2010,the total water use of Shandong Province decreased by 4.57 billion m^3.The improvement of industrial water use efficiency and irrigation water utilization coefficient is the main negative factor to reduce the regional total water use by 7.44 billion m^3 and 3.57 billion m^3 respectively,while industrial scale expansion is the main positive contributor to increase the regional total water use by 6.10 billion m^3.The correlation between annual precipitation and water use and driving factors indicate that the annual precipitation affect the irrigation water use and total water use via the net irrigation water use of per unit area and irrigation ratio,and only these two factors can be used to measure the contribution of HC.The contribution rate of HC from 1995 to 2010 was 42.7%,and equivalent to the contribution of socio-economic factors.From 2002 to 2003,the precipitation in Shandong Province increased from 420.2 mm to 936.3 mm,and the total amount of water used and irrigation water for farmland decreased by 3.66 billion m^3 and 2.80 billion m^3 respectively.The contribution rate of HC was 70.9%.The influence of HC must be considered in the analysis of water control and water use.
作者
程亮
胡霞
王宗志
刘克琳
王坤
CHENG Liang;HU Xia;WANG Zongzhi;LIU Kelin;WANG Kun(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Fuzhou Municipal Construction Investment Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 344000,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《应用基础与工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期1350-1360,共11页
Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407502,2018YFC0408005)
国家自然科学基金项目(51509158)
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20150075)
关键词
区域用水总量
驱动因子
水文气象要素
LMDI
用水模拟
用水管控
社会水文
regional total water use
drivers
hydro-climatic variability
LMDI
water use simulation
water use behavior adjusting
social hydrology
作者简介
程亮(1985—),男,博士,高级工程师.E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn;通信作者:王宗志(1977—),男,博士,教授级高级工程师.E-mail:zzwang@nhri.cn
