摘要
目的:评价新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情中相关干预措施的作用.方法:收集COVID-19疫情数据,分析COVID-19的传播特点,利用Python建立SEIR模型,加入潜伏期传染率、感染人群变化率等新参数,尝试分析防控手段的有效性.结果:给出多种相关干预措施下疫情发展趋势的预测.模型显示,基于严格限制出行的隔离措施能够减缓COVID-19发病曲线发展的趋势,使潜伏和感染人群的峰值降低45.71%和29.90%,潜伏人群数量较快到达群峰;模拟发现,本次疫情的拐点将出现在3月初,但对比COVID-19疫情实际数据,疫情拐点或将提前出现.结论:COVID-19疫情的防控措施是有效的,各地方政府应严格执行隔离制度,切断传播途径,巩固成果,全力遏制COVID-19传播.
Objective:To evaluate the role of related interventions in the Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic.Methods:By collecting COVID-19 epidemic data,analyzing the transmission characteristics of COVID-19,using python to build a SEIR model,and adding new parameters of latent infection rate and change rate of infected population,the effectiveness of current prevention and control measures was analyzed.Results:The development trend of the epidemic situation under a variety of related interventions was successfully predicted.The model showed that the isolation measures based on strict travel restrictions could slow down the development trend of COVID-19 incidence curve,reduce the peak of latent and infected populations by 45.71%and 29.90%with the number of latent population reaching peak value quickly.The inflection point of this epidemic was found at the beginning of March in the simulation.However,through the comparative analysis with actual data of COVID-19,it was found that the actual inflection point might appear in advance.Conclusion:At present,the prevention and control measures of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic have achieved a certain effect.Local governments should continue to strictly implement the isolation system,cut off the transmission channels,consolidate the results,and make every effort to curb the transmission of COVID-19.
作者
耿辉
徐安定
王晓艳
张勇
尹小妹
马茂
吕军
GENG Hui;XU Anding;WANG Xiaoyan;ZHANG Yong;YIN Xiaomei;MA Mao;LU Jun(Physical Examination center, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061,China;Department of Neurology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, China;State-owned Assets Office, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061, China;Department of Pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061, China;Department of Clinical Research, the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, China)
出处
《暨南大学学报（自然科学与医学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期175-180,共6页
Journal of Jinan University(Natural Science & Medicine Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BGL183)
陕西省软科学研究计划一般项目(2017KRM211)
西安交通大学第一附属医院院基金(2019RKX-05)。
作者简介
耿辉(1984-),男,工程师,研究方向:健康大数据,E-mail:165313459@qq.com;通信作者:吕军,男,博士,特聘研究员,研究方向:临床大数据挖掘,E-mail:lyujun2019@163.com;通信作者:马茂,男,博士,教授,研究方向:健康管理,E-mail:mamao2007@163.com。
