摘要
目的研究唐代宝鸡地区旱涝灾害发生的时间变化特征及其周期规律,以期为该区旱涝灾害的预测与防治提供科学依据。方法通过搜集整理唐代宝鸡地区旱涝灾害史料,重建宝鸡地区旱涝灾害等级序列,利用滑动T检验、红噪声频谱分析等方法,分析唐代宝鸡地区旱涝灾害的时间变化特征和周期规律。结果(1)唐代宝鸡地区旱涝灾害具有明显的阶段性特征,总体上表现为先增加后降低再升高的变化趋势;(2)旱涝灾害等级序列在10和30 a尺度上突变参考点或突变区间分别有7个和2个;(3)唐代宝鸡地区旱涝灾害等级序列具有显著的193.3,13.8,7.2和2.4~6.0 a的变化周期。结论宝鸡地区旱涝灾害具有明显的阶段性特征,该特征可能受到太阳活动和厄尔尼诺等因素的影响。
Purposes—To study the temporal variation characteristics and the periodic law of drought and flood disasters in Baoji area during the Tang Dynasty,and to provide scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of drought and flood disasters in this area.Methods—The sequence of drought and flood disasters in Baoji area was rebuild by collecting and sorting out the historical data of drought and flood disasters in this area during the Tang Dynasty,and the temporal variation characteristics and periodic laws of drought and flood disasters in this area during the Tang Dynasty are analyzed by using the methods of sliding T-test and red noise spectrum.Results—(1)The drought and flood disasters in Baoji area during the Tang Dynasty had obvious stage characteristic,which showed a trend of increasing first,then decreasing and then increasing;(2)There were 7 abrupt reference points or intervals in the drought and flood disaster level series on the scale of 10 years,and 2 on the scale of 30 years;(3)There were significant cycles of 193.3,13.8,7.2 and 2.4~6.0 years in the drought and flood disaster sequence of Baoji area during the Tang Dynasty.Conclusion—The drought and flood disasters in Baoji area has obvious stage change characteristics,which may be influenced by solar activity,ENSO and other factors.
作者
耿子雯
郁耀闯
王长燕
马佳俊
龚兰兰
GENG Zi-wen;YU Yao-chuang;WANG Chang-yan;MA Jia-jun;GONG Lan-lan(College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China)
出处
《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2020年第1期62-65,71,共5页
Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)
基金
陕西省2019年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S201910721033)
陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(18JS005)
陕西省社会科学界联合会项目(2019Z007)
宝鸡文理学院2019年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2019XJ115)
宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院2018年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2018DHDC10)。
关键词
唐代
宝鸡地区
旱涝灾害
厄尔尼诺
the Tang Dynasty
Baoji area
drought and flood
ENSO
作者简介
耿子雯(1999-),女,辽宁营口人,Email:13840715263@163.com;通讯作者:郁耀闯(1980-),男,河南南阳人,副教授,博士,硕士生导师,研究方向:灾害地理与全球变化,Email:yuyaochuang@126.com。
