摘要
为了探究我国建筑业安全事故的演变规律,促进建筑业的安全生产,开展建筑业安全事故时空分形研究。对2000-2018年住房和城乡建设部网站上事故快报信息进行统计汇总,并根据谷歌地球系统中的经纬度信息,建立了建筑业安全事故的时空分布数据库。基于分形理论中的R/S方法,研究建筑安全事故的时间分形特征;利用分形理论中的网格法,统计不同网格尺度下建筑安全事故的事故数量,研究建筑安全事故在全国、九大自然地理区以及干湿分区的分维值,分析其空间分布分形特征。研究表明,建筑安全事故时间序列分形特征客观存在,Hurst指数显示未来一段时间内建筑安全形势将会更加严峻;全国范围内建筑安全事故具有较好的空间分形特征,湿润地区、半湿润地区分形特征更加明显。
To study the evolution rules of China's construction safety accidents and promote the safety performance of construction projects,this paper conducts the fractal analysis for understanding he temporal-spatial distribution.The database of temporal-spatial distribution has been built for examining the fractal characteristics of the Chinese construction accidents from 2000 to 2018,which have been calculated by using the crawler technology and the Google Earth System.The Hurst exponent of the time series of the construction safety accidents is obtained by adopting resealed range analysis(R/S Analysis).The grid method is used to measure the number of accidents in grids,which cover the area of the construction accidents at different grid scale levels,including scales for the national wide region,the nine dominating physical geographical regions and the arid and humid regions.The Hurst exponent of the time series obtained from the R/S analysis indicates that the fractal characteristics of the time series objectively exist and the increasing trend is enhanced.The fractal characteristics of the spatial distribution of China's construction accidents are also objectively existent.The fractal dimension values of Humid areas and sub-humid areas are obviously.
作者
孙磊
刘国买
林振思
殷乃芳
SUN Lei;LIU Guo-mai;LIN Zhen-si;YIN Nai-fang(School of Management,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China;Research Center of Science and Technology Innovation,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China;Mathematics and Physics Institute,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China)
出处
《工程管理学报》
2020年第1期126-130,共5页
Journal of Engineering Management
基金
福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAT190405)
福建省住建厅建设科技研究开发项目(2019-k-72).
关键词
建筑安全事故
分形理论
时空分布
construction safety accident
fractal theory
temporal-spatial distribution
作者简介
孙磊(1981-),男,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向:建筑经济,安全管理,E-mail:sunleizhongnan@163.com;刘国买(1966-),男,教授,研究方向:风险管理;林振思(1978-),男,讲师,研究方向:信息管理,建筑安全;殷乃芳(1981-),女,讲师,研究方向:数理统计。
