摘要
针对传统溃坝生命损失经验回归方法对数据依赖大、相关数据的时效性和在特定范围的适用性较差问题,考虑到有关溃坝生命损失机理的关键要素不确定性,研究溃坝生命损失风险后果可选择可变模糊集合评价方法.然而,因为常规的可变模糊评价通常是应用于线性变化指标的处理上,所以针对下游风险人口和群众对风险的理解程度等指数变化或者不确定的指标,其所映射的相对隶属度也会发生非线性变化,进而影响整体评价的正确性和严谨性.本文用对数转换和边界约束的方法对可变模糊评价法所属的相关计算公式进行优化和改善.提出了溃坝生命损失的改进模型,解决了处理重要指标时可能出现的的隶属度跃变问题,将隶属度计算结果的相关系数提高了14%,其值达到0.999.将改进后的模型应用到4座已溃水库的生命损失风险后果评价中,结果与实际灾情相符且与实际死亡率排序一致,验证了改进模型的有效性,提高了可变模糊评价法在处理不同特性指标时的适用性,为水库风险排序及风险管理理论提供了新的思路和方法.
To solve the problems of data dependency,the poor time lines,and applicability of the traditional cal regression method for life loss assessment of dam break,considering the uncertainty of the life loss mechanism,the improved variable fuzzy set method has been introduced to analyze the risk consequences of life loss due to dam break. However,because the traditional empirical regression method is generally used to measure the index of linear change,and the calculation of relative membership degree of the index,such as reservoir capacity,downstream risk population,occurrence time of dam break,and risk assessment,changes nonlinearly in a specific interval,the accuracy of comprehensive evaluation results is directly affected. In this study,the formula for variable fuzzy relative difference degree was improved by logarithmic transformation and boundary constraints. An evaluation model of dambreak life loss based on the improved variable fuzzy set method was proposed. The problem of membership degree jump,which may occur when dealing with the index of nonlinear change,was solved. Furthermore,the linear relation coefficient of membership degree calculation results was increased by 14% to 0.999. The improved evaluation model was applied to the risk-consequence evaluation of life loss of four collapsed reservoirs. The results were tent with real disaster conditions and ranking of mortality rate. Therefore,the effectiveness of the improved tion model was verified. Moreover,the applicability of the variable fuzzy evaluation method in dealing with different characteristic indicators was improved. Therefore,this study provides an improved method for ranking reservoir risk and enriching risk management theory.
作者
李巍
李宗坤
葛巍
郭新燕
Li Wei;Li Zongkun;Ge Wei;Guo Xinyan(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Railway Engineering,Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《天津大学学报（自然科学与工程技术版）》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期419-425,共7页
Journal of Tianjin University：Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51679222,51709239,51379192)
国家博士后基金资助项目(2018M632809)
河南省科技攻关资助项目(182102311070)
河南省高等学校重点科研资助项目(18A570007)
河南省水利科技攻关计划资助项目(GG201813).
关键词
溃坝
生命损失
改进可变模糊
风险排序
dam break
loss of life
improved variable fuzzy
risk ranking
作者简介
李巍(1983-),男,博士研究生;通信作者:李巍,21872168@qq.com.
