摘要
改革开放以来,天津市经济社会稳步发展,经济总量迅速增长,但是服务、旅游和交通运输等行业的发展存在结构不合理性。天津市经济发展的同时也伴随着不可忽视的能源消耗问题,能源浪费和环境污染长期以来影响着天津市的综合竞争力提升。由于其第三产业的发展与其相对能耗有着内在耦合关系,这一关系提供了探索解决产业发展和资源消耗可持续化的有效途径。采用VAR模型和SVAR模型对天津市第三产业的体量和结构与能源消费构成进行空间耦合性分析,利用行业能源之间的脉冲作用提出优化的能源-产业结构,提出了调整行业发展方向和能源消费比例的建议,力争走经济平稳发展和能源供应协调的和谐发展道路。
Since the reform and opening up,Tianjin's economy and society have developed steadily,and the economic aggregate has grown rapidly.However,the development of services,tourism and transportation industries has structural irrationality.The economic development of Tianjin is accompanied by energy consumption problems that cannot be ignored.Energy waste and environmental pollution have long affected the overall competitiveness of Tianjin.Since the development of its tertiary industry is intrinsically coupled with its relative energy consumption,this relationship provides an effective way to explore and solve industrial development and resource consumption sustainability.In this paper,the VAR model and the SVAR model are used to analyze the spatial coupling of the volume,structure and energy consumption of the tertiary industry in Tianjin,and the energy-industry structure of the industry is proposed by using the pulse between the industries.The development direction and the proportion of energy consumption are recommended to take a harmonious development path of stable economic development and energy supply coordination.
作者
常文千
李忆苏
杨悦婷
张军鹏
CHANG Wen-qian;LI Yi-su;YANG Yue-ting;ZHANG Jun-peng(College of Economics, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan Hebei 063210, China;Taxation Bureau of Nanpu Economic Development Zone, Tangshan Hebei 063305, China)
出处
《华北理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第2期19-24,共6页
Journal of North China University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)
基金
河北省高层次人才资助项目(立项者:史宝娟)“基于生态承载力的区域产业转移及协同发展的机制与政策研究”(A2017002012)。
关键词
第三产业
能源消费
产业结构
VAR模型
tertiary industry
energy consumption
industrial structure
VAR model
作者简介
常文千(1990-),男,河北唐山人,硕士,助教,研究方向:产业经济学、生态经济学和统计推断;李忆苏(1996-),女,华北理工大学经济学院本科生,研究方向:经济统计。
