基于VAR和VEC模型的台商农业投资与大陆农业发展关系分析被引量：2

Analysis on the Relationship Between Taiwan Residents Investment in Agriculture and Agricultural Development of Chinese Mainland Based on VAR and VEC Model

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摘要【目的/意义】新形势下,对台商农业投资与大陆农业发展关系进行分析可拓展农业投资的研究思路,更好地促进两岸农业合作与交流。【方法/过程】基于1991一2016年台商大陆农业投资数据及大陆农业GDP数据,利用向量自回归模型及误差修正模型对台商农业投资在大陆的分布特征及其与大陆农业经济发展的关系进行分析。【结果/结论】长期来看,台商农业投资与大陆农业发展互为格兰杰因果关系,台商农业投资与大陆农业经济增长之间存在互为促进作用;台商农业投资对大陆农业发展的正向冲击效应较为显著,方差贡献率稳定在22%左右;大陆农业发展对台商大陆农业投资的正向冲击效应非常显著,方差贡献率稳定在70%左右。VEC模型分析表明,短期内台商农业投资与大陆农业发展具有相互促进作用,但并不显著。【Objective/Meaning】Under the new situation,the analysis of the relationship between Taiwan Residents investment in agriculture and the agricultural development in the Chinese mainland can expand the research ideas of agricultural investment and better promote the cross-strait agricultural cooperation and exchange.【Methods/Procedures】Based on the agricultural investment data of Taiwan businessmen in China's Mainland and the agricultural GDP data of China's Mainland from 1991 to 2016,the vector autoregression model and error correction model were used to analyze the distribution features of Taiwan Residents investment in agriculture in China's Mainland and its relationship with the development of agricultural economy in the Chinese mainland.【Results/Conclusions】For a long time,the agricultural investment from Taiwan businessmen and agricultural development in the Chinese mainland were mutually Granger causality,and the agricultural investment from Taiwan businessmen and agricultural economic growth in the Chinese mainland were mutually promoting.Taiwan Residents agricultural investment had a significant positive impact on the agricultural development in China's Mainland,with the variance contribution rate being stable at about 22%.The positive impact of the mainland^agricultural development on Taiwan Residents agricultural investment was very significant,and the variance contribution rate was stable at about 70%.The analysis through VEC model showed that Taiwan Residents agricultural investment and mainland’s agricultural development had a mutual promotion effect in the short term,but it was not significant.

作者李航飞 LI Hang-fei(College of Tourism&Geography,Shaoguan University,Shaoguan,Guangdong 512005,China;College of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350007,China)

机构地区韶关学院旅游与地理学院福建师范大学地理科学学院

出处《台湾农业探索》 2019年第5期7-14,共8页 Taiwan Agricultural Research

基金国家自然科学基金项目(41771136) 广东省哲学社会科学十三五规划项目(GD17CGL13) 广东省教育厅科研项目(2019) 韶关市科技计划项目(2019sn081) 广东省本科高校教学质量与教学改革工程——“人文地理学”(2019)