摘要
基于1986-2018年新疆统计数据,本文采用时间序列分析方法,对新疆服务业与农业、工业发展之间的互动关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:在这个阶段,新疆服务业与工业之间的关系是"工业主导、服务业从属",农业和服务业之间存在相互抑制的关系,工业对农业的促进作用比较显著;预测方差分析表明,服务业、农业、工业三者之间的影响作用近期看主要来源于自身,长期看服务业除了受自身影响外,受农业的影响超过了工业的影响。
Based on the statistical data from 1986 to 2018,this paper made an empirical study on the interaction between service and agricultural&industrial development in Xinjiang by using time series analysis method.The results have showed that the relationship between service and industry in Xinjiang is"industrial leading with subordination of service",and there is a mutually restrained relationship between agriculture and service.Industry plays a significant role in promoting agriculture.The analysis of variance shows that the influences of service,agriculture and industry mainly come from themselves in the near future.In the long run,service is not only affected by itself,but also affected by agriculture more than industry.
作者
苏斌
程洪飞
Su Bin;Cheng Hongfei(Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012)
出处
《创新科技》
2019年第9期46-52,共7页
Innovation science and technology
关键词
服务业
工业
脉冲响应
service
industry
impulse response
作者简介
苏斌(1964-),男,教授,院长,研究方向:宏观经济分析;程洪飞(1990-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:宏观经济理论。
