摘要
国防开支关乎军队的发展和战斗力的提升,是宏观经济预测的一项重要内容.利用Verhulst模型解决"小样本、不确定性"问题的优势对国防开支进行预测.首先对Verhulst模型机理进行了简要的叙述,说明其初值选取不合理是产生误差的一个重要原因;其次提出一种逆向预测的模型改进思路,通过设定迭代次数等参数,对传统的Verhulst模型的初值进行修正,建立一种基于逆向预测的Verhulst模型.采集我国2009-2016年国防开支数据进行实例检验,并对2017年国防开支进行预测,证明该模型能够有效提高预测精度.
Defense expenditure is an important part of macroeconomic forecast,which is related to the development and combat effectiveness of the military.In this paper,the advantage of Verhulst model to solve the "small sample,uncertainty" problem is used to predict the defense expenditure.Firstly,the mechanism of Verhulst model is briefly described,and the unreasonable selection of its initial value is an important reason for the error.Secondly,an idea to improve the model of reverse prediction is proposed.By setting the number of iterations and other parameters,the initial value of the traditional Verhulst model is modified,and a Verhulst model based on reverse prediction is established.China’s defense expenditure data from 2009 to 2016 were collected for example test,and forecasts for defense expenditure in 2017 proving that the model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.
作者
牛童
张琳
张搏
魏圣军
李波
NIU Tong;ZHANG Lin;ZHANG Bo;WEI Sheng-jun;LI Bo(Air and Missile Defense College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710051,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2019年第18期161-167,共7页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2017M623417)
作者简介
通信作者:张搏.
