摘要
China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the "triple high" phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic-world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon.Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011-2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self-sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self-sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.
基金
Zhu and Li acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71803085 and No.71673142)
the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.2017M621766)
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.KJQN201949)
Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
作者简介
Wusheng Yu, Professor, Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Email: wusheng@ifro,ku.dk;Tianxiang Li,Postdoc,College of Economics & Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,China. Email:txl0428@njau.edu.cn;corresponding author:Jing Zhu,Professor, China Center for Food Security Studies,Nanjing Agricultural University,China.Email: crystalzhu@njau.edu.cn.
