摘要
基于投入产出模型和社会网络分析,利用世界投入产出表相关数据,对2000—2014年中国的增加值贸易进行核算,并分析全球增加值贸易的网络特征。研究结果显示:(1)从出口目的地来看,中国向美国、日本、德国等国家的增加值出口较大;(2)从行业来看,中国的纺织业、除汽车和摩托车之外的其他产品批发业、采矿业等行业的增加值出口较大;(3)根据网络密度的计算结果,世界范围的各国(地区)贸易联系程度在增强;(4)中国的相对点度数和点强度有上升的趋势,而日本和美国有下降的趋势,说明中国在世界增加值贸易格局中的地位在提升,不过美国仍在世界增加值贸易格局中占据主导地位;(5)核心边缘分析结果表明核心国家(地区)的数目经历了先增加后减少的过程,边缘国家(地区)数目则先减少后增加。其中,中国的核心度一直在增加,日本和美国的核心度呈现下降的趋势。因此,为了扩大增加值贸易,增强国际贸易的话语权,中国政府有必要采取调整进出口税率等政策,并重视与美国等国家的双边贸易合作,以实现双赢的结果。
Based on the input-output model and social network analysis,the paper uses the data of the World Input-Output Database to calculate the value-added trade of China from 2000 to 2014,and analyzes the network characteristics of global value-added trade.The results are shown as follows.(1) From the perspective of export destinations,China’s value-added exports to the United States,Japan and Germany are relatively large.(2) From the industry perspective,China’s value-added exports of the textile industry,the products wholesale industry other than automobiles and motorcycles,the mining industry are relatively large.(3) According to the calculation results of network density,trade links are increasing.(4) China’s relative point degree and point intensity shows a rising trend,but Japan and the United States have a downward trend,which indicates that China’s value-added trade in the world is in the position of the upgrade,while the United States still occupies the leading position in the world’s value-added trade.(5) The results of the core-edge analysis show that the number of core countries experiences the first increase and then the reduction process,and the number of marginal countries(regions) decreases first and then increases;the core of China is increasing,while the cores of Japan and the United States show a downward trend.Therefore,it is necessary for China to adopt policies such as adjusting the import and export tax rate,further expanding the value-added trade,increasing the voice of international trade,and attaching importance to bilateral trade cooperation with the United States and other countries to achieve win-win results.
作者
邓光耀
DENG Guangyao(Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020)
出处
《首都经济贸易大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期34-44,共11页
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
作者简介
邓光耀(1985—),男,兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心/统计学院副教授。
