摘要
美国总统特朗普执政以来,美国与土耳其关系的紧张态势进一步加剧,双方外交冲突接连不断,经贸摩擦持续升级,安全关系严重恶化。从短期来看,特朗普以"美国优先"为原则调整中东战略,用现实主义处理与中东国家的关系,重视以色列和海湾国家的作用,使土耳其在美国的中东联盟体系中被边缘化,是美土关系急剧恶化的直接原因;就长期而言,在埃尔多安总统和正发党领导下,土耳其国家身份的"去西方化"、外交独立性凸显及加速向俄罗斯靠拢,是美土关系疏远的深层因素。美国和土耳其内外政策的调整,使双方在库尔德人问题、巴以冲突、伊核问题等中东地缘政治议题上的矛盾不断激化,加速了双方关系的恶化进程。受制于双方国内政治,美土关系短期内难以改善,但双方仍有广泛的合作基础,美土彻底决裂的可能性不大,土耳其将继续在美、俄之间寻求外交平衡。
Since President Trump came into power, tensions between the US and Turkey have been stepped up, with diplomatic conflicts continuously going on, economic frictions constantly upgraded and security relations seriously worsening between them. From a short-term point of view, Trump’s adjustment of the US strategy toward the Middle East based on his "America First" ideology, his coping with the relations with the Middle East countries on the basis of realism and the importance he has attached to the roles of Israel and the Gulf states have marginalized Turkey in American alliance system in the Middle East, thus constituting the direct cause for the drastically deteriorating of US-Turkey relations. From a long-term perspective, under the leadership of Erdogan and the AKP, Turkey is trying to deWesternize its national identity, pursue an independent foreign policy and get closer to Russia, which constitute the deep-root causes for the US and Turkey to drift apart. The respective adjustment of domestic and foreign policies by the US and Turkey have further intensified their disagreements or contradictions on such Middle East geopolitical issues as the Kurdish issue, the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Iranian nuclear issue, thus speeding up the deterioration of their bilateral relations. However, it is not likely that the US and Turkey will break up completely as they still have a broad basis for cooperation, though it is difficult for them to improve their soured relations in a short run as determined by their respective domestic politics. As a result, Turkey is likely to go on seeking a balance between the US and Russia.
作者
宫小飞
Gong Xiaofei(International Politics, Nanjing University;Center for Asia-Pacific Development Studies, Nanjing University)
出处
《和平与发展》
CSSCI
2019年第4期99-116,135,共19页
Peace and Development
作者简介
宫小飞,南京大学国际政治学专业博士研究生,南京大学亚太发展研究中心研究员。
