摘要
美国在后冷战时代的地缘政治目标是控制欧亚大陆的边缘地带,防止该地区出现一个威胁美国霸权的国家或国家集团。由于世界范围内的政治经济发展不平衡,美国相对于欧亚国家的实力优势处于不断削减之中。在美国看来,中国和俄罗斯这两个洲际型国家对美国霸权构成了潜在威胁与现实挑战。尤其是中国,经济规模不断扩大,军事实力水涨船高,地区和全球影响力不断提升,令美国倍感焦虑。为此,美国出台了"亚太再平衡"战略,试图以此从海洋方向围堵中国。但随着中国建设"海洋强国"步伐的加快,"亚太再平衡"战略已经不能满足在海上围堵中国的需要,美国因此出台了"印太战略",试图在更大范围内和战略纵深地带遏制中国,意在阻止中国发展成为海权强国。然而,"印太战略"在实施过程中面临诸多障碍与困难:一是霸权护持成本的上升;二是军事力量无法满足地缘政治目标的需要;三是联盟体系无法有效贯彻美国的战略意图;等等。回顾历史,拿破仑的大陆封锁政策已经给美国"印太战略"敲响警钟,违反历史潮流和时代主题的地缘战略不仅会面临不可克服的障碍与困境,而且注定以失败告终。
The geopolitical goal of the US in the Post-Cold War era is to control the rimland of Eurasia and prevent the emergence of a state or group of states threatening US hegemony in the region. Due to the imbalance of political and economic development around the world, the advantage of the US strength is being continuously reduced compared with Eurasian states. In the US perspective, China and Russia, two intercontinental powers, pose threat and challenge to US hegemony. In particular, the economic scale of China has been expanding and the military strength has been improving. In order to contain China’ development, the US launched the "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy," trying to encircle China from the ocean. With the acceleration of China’s building of maritime power, however, the "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy" can no longer meet the needs of the US to encircle China at sea. Therefore, the US launched the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," trying to contain China’s development into a maritime power in wider scope and strategic depth. However, there are many obstacles and difficulties in the implementation of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," including the rising cost of hegemony protection, the inability of military forces to meet the needs of geopolitical objectives, and the inability of alliance system to effectively implement the strategic intentions of the US. Napoleon’s "continental blockade" policy in history was an alarm for the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy." The geo-strategy, which violates the historical trend and the theme of the times, is doomed to face insurmountable obstacles and get into trouble.
作者
杨震
王森
Yang Zhen;Wang Sen
出处
《国际观察》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期42-61,共20页
International Review
基金
国家社科基金2011年度重大项目"当代国际核政治和我国国家安全研究"(项目编号:11&ZD181)
中国海洋发展研究会2016年度重点项目"日本海洋战略跟踪研究"(项目编号:CAMAZD201611)
2019年上海交通大学智库引导性研究项目"海洋强国战略下我国无人技术应用于海洋的国际法问题研究"(项目编号:ZKYJ-2019005)
上海市哲社规划一般项目"‘21世纪海上丝绸之路’倡议下我国维护海上通道的法律保障研究"(项目编号:2018BFX012)的阶段性成果
关键词
“印太战略”
联盟体系
“大陆封锁”
Indo-Pacific Strategy
Alliance System
Continental Blockade
作者简介
杨震,北京大学海洋战略中心特约研究员,北京,100871;王森,云南财经大学国际问题研究中心特约研究员,昆明,650221.
