摘要
运用陕西省秦巴山区的实地调研数据,基于两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和内生转换回归模型,解决了样本选择偏差以及异质性等问题,对农户的社会资本、收入多样化和农户贫困脆弱性三者之间的关系进行了探讨,并在反事实假设的基础上估计了收入多样化和收入专业化对贫困脆弱性影响的平均处理效应。研究结果表明,社会资本对收入多样化具有显著的正向影响,对贫困脆弱性有显著负向影响,社会资本每增加一个单位,贫困脆弱性下降7. 95%。相较于收入多样化,收入专业化有助于降低未来发生贫困的可能性。其中,当收入多样化农户选择采用收入专业化时,贫困脆弱性将下降0. 135 9,当专业化农户选择收入多样化时,贫困脆弱性将上升0. 114 8。根据上述结论提出以下政策建议:(1)社会资本能够有效降低贫困脆弱性,因此在对贫困地区农户进行精准扶贫时,应注重农户社会资本培育,加强农村文化建设,丰富农民日常生活娱乐,充分重视非正规风险承担网络有效降低贫困脆弱性的作用。(2)正规风险制度的不完善会促使农民选取收入多样化来抵御风险,但就长期来讲收入多样化并不能帮助农民有效脱贫。因此,政府应加强正规风险制度的培育和建设,注重提升农户抵御风险的能力,降低收入多样化在贫困地区的保险功能。(3)相较于收入多样化,收入专业化有助于降低未来发生贫困的可能性。政府应针对当地资源经济特征,落实和推进"一乡一业、一村一品"战略,逐步形成专业化生产格局,建立起产业扶贫的长效机制。通过加强农户技术培训,提升农户技能型人力资本,使其持久性地融入产业化扶贫项目中,提高内生性生计能力,实现永久性脱贫目标。本文的研究对于帮助农户有效脱贫,实现乡村振兴有着重要意义。
This paper used the field survey data of the Qinba Mountainous Area in Shanxi Province,based on the two-stage least squares method(2SLS)and the endogenous conversion regression model to solve problems of sample selection bias and heterogeneity,the relationship among rural households’social capital,income diversification,and vulnerability of rural households was discussed.Based on counterfactual assumptions,the average treatment effects of income diversification and income specialization on poverty vulnerability were estimated.The research results showed that social capital has a significantly positive impact on income diversification and a significant negative impact on the vulnerability of poverty;for every additional unit of social capital,the poverty vulnerability decreased by 7.95%;compared with income diversification,income specialization helped to reduce the possibility of future poverty.Besides,when the income diversification farmer chooses to adopt income specialization,the poverty vulnerability will decrease by 0.135 9.When the specialized farmer chooses to diversify income,the poverty vulnerability will increase by 0.114 8.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are proposed:First,Social capital can effectively reduce the vulnerability of poverty.Therefore,when carrying out accurate poverty alleviation for farmers in poverty-stricken areas,it should pay attention to the cultivation of farmers’social capital,strengthen the construction of rural culture,enrich the daily life and entertainment of farmers,and pay full attention to the role of informal risk-taking networks in effectively reducing poverty vulnerability.Second,The imperfection of the formal risk system will encourage farmers to choose income diversification to resist risks.But in the long run,income diversification will not help farmers to get rid of poverty effectively.Therefore,the government should strengthen the cultivation and construction of a formal risk system,focus on improving farmers’ability to withstand risks,and reduce the insurance function of income diversification in poor areas.Third,Compared to income diversification,income specialization can help reduce the possibility of future poverty.The government should implement and promote the strategy of‘one town,one industry,one village and one product’.According to the characteristics of local resources and economy,the government should gradually form a specialized production pattern,and establish a long-term mechanism for industrial poverty alleviation.By strengthening the technical training of farmers,the skilled human capital of farmers will be upgraded,and they will be permanently integrated into the industrialized poverty alleviation projects to improve endogenous livelihoods and achieve permanent poverty alleviation goals.This research is of great significance to help the rural households get rid of poverty effectively and realize the rural revitalization.
作者
徐戈
陆迁
姜雅莉
XU Ge;LU Qian;JIANG Ya-li(College of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling Shaanxi 712100,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期123-133,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"西北地区农户现代灌溉技术采用研究:社会网络
学习效应与采用效率"(批准号:71473197)
西部研究院重点专项"秦巴山区农户脆弱性与动态贫困治理研究"(批准号:2016XBYD003)
关键词
社会资本
收入多样化
贫困脆弱性
内生转换回归模型
social capital
income diversification
poverty vulnerability
Endogenous Conversion Regression Model
作者简介
徐戈,博士生,主要研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。E-mail:xnxuge@126.com;通信作者:陆迁,博士,教授,博导,主要研究方向为农业技术经济与区域经济发展。E-mail:xnluqian@126.com。
