摘要
本文基于中国2000～2017年省级面板数据,运用熵权法构建新型城镇化指数,在考虑控制空间因素和内生性的基础上,通过贝叶斯后验概率确定了动态空间杜宾模型,分析了新型城镇化与空气污染的关系。结果表明:新型城镇化与空气污染存在正向空间协同性;空气污染表现出明显的"漏出效应"、"叠加效应"和"警示效应";新型城镇化的发展存在地区差异性,并对空气污染的影响最大;从新型城镇化的微观层面来看,人口与生产在新型城镇化发展中所占权重最大,该因素加重了空气污染;居民生活与社会发展对空气污染具有一定程度的抑制作用。为减少空气污染,应加强空气污染联合防治;推进区域协调发展;注重新型城镇化提质发展。
The paper is based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000-2017,the new urbanization index is constructed by entropy weight method. Considering the control of spatial factors and endogeneity,the dynamic spatial Durbin Model is determined by Bayesian posterior probability,and the relationship between new urbanization and air pollution is analyzed. The results show that there is positive spatial cooperativity between new urbanization and air pollution. Air pollution shows obvious "leakage effect","superposition effect" and "warning effect". There are regional differences in the development of new urbanization and the greatest impact on air pollution. From the micro level of new urbanization,population and production play the most important role in the development of new urbanization,which aggravates air pollution. Residents’ life and social development have a certain degree of inhibition on air pollution. In order to reduce air pollution,should strengthen the joint prevention and control of air pollution,promote the coordinated development of the region,and pay attention to the development of new urbanization.
作者
周少甫
张嘉俊
Zhou Shaofu;Zhang Jiajun(School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期66-75,共10页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
关键词
新型城镇化
空气污染
动态空间杜宾模型
空间溢出
熵权法
区域协调
new urbanization
air pollution
dynamic spatial Durbin model
spatial spillover
entropy weight method
regional coordination
作者简介
周少甫,华中科技大学经济学院教授,博士生导师。研究方向:应用经济学、计量经济学;通讯作者:张嘉俊,华中科技大学经济学院硕士研究生。研究方向:空间计量经济学。
