摘要
研究目标:伴随全球贸易低迷与中国外贸增长乏力,中国是否可以摆脱"国际贸易重要性渐减规律"。研究方法:基于投入产出循环关联模型,从数理层面推演全球价值链条件下的贸易"新"乘数,利用WIOD数据测算和实证分析了2000～2014年中国贸易"新"乘数值。研究发现:全球价值链分工模式已然改变了传统分工条件下贸易对经济增长的作用机制。价值链投入产出关联效应会放大贸易对经济增长的作用力,"国际贸易重要性"不仅不会渐减反而渐增。研究创新:基于全球价值链投入产出机制重新构建、测度并分析了贸易对经济增长的作用"新"乘数。研究价值:针对当前全球经济增长疲弱和发展动力不足的现状,为中国利用贸易"新"乘数带动产出恢复性增长提供依据和方向。
Research Objectives:With the sluggish global trade and the weak growth of China s foreign trade,whether China can get rid of the“law of decreasing international trade importance”.Research Methods:Based on the input-output circular correlation model,this paper deduces the trade“new”multiplier under the condition of global value chain from the mathematical level.Further utilizing the WIOD basic data to measure and empirically analysis the 2000~2014 Chinese trade“new”multiplier value.Research Findings:The global value chain division has changed the mechanism of trade s effect on economic growth under traditional division.Input-output mechanism will amplify the influence of trade on economic growth,while the“importance of international trade”will not only gradually decrease but will gradually increase.Research Innovations:Based on the global value chain input-output mechanism,the“new”multiplier of trade s role in economic growth was reconstructed,measured and analyzed.Research Value:In view of the current situation of weak global economic growth and insufficient development momentum,this paper provides some evidences and orientation for China to use the trade“new”multipliers to drive the recovery of output.
作者
刘梦
戴翔
Liu Meng;Dai Xiang(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University;School of Economics,Nanjing Audit University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第12期61-80,共20页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"以‘一带一路’创新牵引中国区域产业转移
转型并高质量发展的机理
路径与政策研究"(71873030)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目"高质量增长阶段扩大江苏服务业开放对产业结构升级的影响机制
路径及对策研究"(2018SJZDI100)
