摘要
2018年以来中国经济平稳运行,物价水平稳定,就业形势整体向好,经济增长质量稳步提升。不过,当前中国经济仍然面临一定的下行压力,尤其需要警惕消费增速过快下滑、宏观税负进一步加重、民间投资复苏乏力、部分企业效益状况显著恶化、去杠杆过程中金融体系不稳定性加剧等主要风险点。此外,杠杆率高企是现阶段中国经济面临的突出问题,而且中国的杠杆率在不同部门之间以及各部门内部均体现出明显的结构性特点。为此,中央在2018年专门提出了"结构性去杠杆"的新思路。在"结构性去杠杆"稳步推进的大背景下,宏观政策既要积极应对经济下行压力,谨防去杠杆带来的经济增速超预期下滑风险,又要激发经济内生增长动力,促使经济实现长期可持续发展和"高质量发展"。
Since 2018, China＇s economy has been operating smoothly, prices have been stable, the overall employment situation has improved, and the quality of economic growth has steadily increased. However, China＇s economy still faces downward pressure. In particular, it needs to be alert to several major risks, such as rapid de- cline in consumption growth, increase in macro tax burden, deceleration oi private investment growth, deteriora- ting performance of some companies, and increasing instability of the financial system during the process of deleveraging. In addition, the high leverage ratio of China is a prominent problem at the current stage, and the le- verage ratio shows obvious structural characteristics among different departments and within each department. Un- der this circumstance, the central government proposed a new thought of ＂structural deleveraging＂ in 2018. The macroeconomic policies should not only respond to the unexpected downward pressure caused by structural delever- aging, but also stimulate the endogenous growth drivers of the economy, so as to realize long-term sustainable de- velopment and high-quality development.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第8期5-19,共15页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(15XNI006)的阶段性成果
中国人民大学2018年度"中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金"支持
关键词
结构性去杠杆
债务风险
宏观税负
高质量发展
中国宏观经济
structural deleveraging
debt risk
macro tax burden
high-quality development
China＇smacroeconomy
作者简介
本文是中国人民大学宏观经济论坛团队的集体研究成果，执笔人为陈彦斌、陈小亮、刘哲希。
