摘要
本研究基于我国1990—2014年稻谷、小麦和玉米数据,分阶段对粮食生产收益的主要影响因素及各因素的影响程度进行了回归分析,并对各因素之间的互动关系进行了格兰杰因果检验。研究发现:粮食价格的提高和单产的增加是促进粮食生产收益的关键因素,而粮食生产成本的上涨是粮农增收的阻碍因素;粮价提高和单产增加之后往往也伴随着生产成本的提升;我国当前粮食市场价格对粮食生产成本变化的反应不敏感;2004年以来,粮食价格和单产对粮食生产收益变动的正向效应相对增强,生产成本对粮食生产收益的负向影响相对减弱。
Based on the data of rice,wheat and maize from 1990 to 2014,the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of revenue of growing grains and interrelation among these influencing factors in China.It finds that the increase of grain price and yield is the key factor to promote the increase of farmers＇ earnings,and the increase of production cost is the obstacle to the increase of farmers＇ earnings.After the increase of grain price and yield,it is also accompanied by the increase of production cost.It aiso finds that the current price of grain is not sensitive to change of production cost.The study also finds that the positive effect of grain price and yield on the change of revenue of growing grains has been strengthened since 2004,and the negative effect of production cost constraint on revenue of growing grains has been weakened.
作者
周洲
石奇
Zhou Zhou;Shi Qi(Information Research Institute of Science and Technology,Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Shanghai 201403,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210046,China)
出处
《山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第7期61-70,共10页
Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71673127)
教育部人文社会科学基金项目(16YJC790046)
粮食公益性行业科研专项(201513004)
江苏省软科学研究计划项目(BR2017055)
关键词
生产净利润
影响因素
协整检验
格兰杰因果检验
实证分析
Production net profit
Influencing factors
Cointegration test
Granger causality test
Empirical analysis
作者简介
周洲（1989-），男（汉），江苏盱眙人，博士后，主要从事农业经济理论与政策、粮食产业经济方面的研究。
