摘要
收集宁夏贺兰山东麓9个气象站1961—2015年4～5月的日最低气温观测资料,运用数理统计和GIS空间分析法,从气候致灾角度研究了酿酒葡萄晚霜冻日数和频率变化规律以及霜冻灾害致灾危险性。结果表明,近55年来,宁夏贺兰山东麓晚霜冻发生日数在78～233 d之间,轻霜冻发生日数明显多于中霜冻和重霜冻,随年代变化整体呈下降趋势,且轻霜冻发生日数下降速度大于中霜冻和重霜冻;霜冻频率除北部大武口外呈现自北向南辐射递减的规律,各等级霜冻频率最大出现在陶乐,最小出现在大武口,随年代变化总体呈下降趋势。霜冻频率除惠农持续下降外,其他各站在下降过程中均出现2个或3个跃升阶段;各站酿酒葡萄晚霜冻致灾危险性大部处于中度偏低水平,且随着气候变化,霜冻致灾危险性有变小的趋势,中、低等致灾危险范围明显增大,截至2015年,高危险性区域基本消失,次高和中等危险区域范围也大大缩小。
Based on the April-May daily minimum temperature data with nine weather stations in the east foot area of Helan Mountain in Ningxia during 1961—2015. The number of days,frequency changes and hazard risk of late frost for wine grape are researched from the perspective of climate disaster,that using mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis.The results show that the days of late frost are between 78—233 d in recent 55 years. The number of light frost is significantly more than that of medium frost and heavy frost,the change in time shows a decreasing trend. The rate of decline is greater than that of medium frost and heavy frost.The frost frequency showed the rule of decreasing radiation from north to south except for Dawukou in the north. The place where frost frequency of eachgrade is greatest in Taole,least in Dawukou,the trend declined with the change of years. The frost frequency in the other stations showed two or three jumps in the descending process in addition to the continued decline of Huinong.The hazard risk of each station is mostly moderate to low level and getting smaller,the medium and low range is obviously increasing with climate change. As of 2015,the areas of high-risk have largely disappeared,and the areas of secondary and medium risk have also been greatly reduced.
作者
杨文军
李栋梁
陈荣
李红英
YANG Wen-jun;LI Dong-liang;CHEN Rong;LI Hong-ying(Nanjing University of Information Science ＆Technology/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing 210044,China;Meteorological Bureau of Helan in Yinchuan City,Helan 750200,China;Meteorological Bureau of Yinchuan,Yinchuan 750002,China;Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Science,Yinchuan 750002,China)
出处
《广东农业科学》
CAS
2018年第5期127-133,178,共8页
Guangdong Agricultural Sciences
基金
宁夏自然科学基金(NZ14217)
国家公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001-1)
关键词
酿酒葡萄
晚霜冻
时空分布
致灾因子
危险性分析
宁夏
wine grape
late frosts
temporal and spatial distribution
disaster-inducing factors
risk
Ningxia
作者简介
杨文军（1982-）,男,回族,工程师,E-mail：ywjxjx@163.com;通讯作者：李红英（1980-）,女,博士,高级工程师,E-mail：hongyinglhy@126.com
