摘要
基于灰色斜率关联度的基本思想,针对面板数据的三维特征,从指标行为矩阵的相近性和相似性角度出发,综合考虑指标发展水平、指标发展水平变化和指标发展速度变化3个因素,构造了一种新的基于面板数据时空特征的灰色矩阵关联度模型,并讨论了模型的性质。最后以河南省18个市的区域旱灾脆弱性指数为参考序列,研究了影响旱灾脆弱性指数的9个因素。结果显示,各市单位面积粮食产量对旱灾脆弱性指数的影响最小,各市生产总值和各市农村恩格尔系数对旱灾脆弱性指数的影响最大,说明旱灾脆弱性与农村贫困情况紧密相关。
Based on the basic idea of gray slope correlation degree,aiming at the three-dimensional characteristics of panel data,from the side of proximity and similarity of index behavior matrix,three factors were considered synthetically： the level of development of indicators,the change of development level of indicators and the change of speed of development of indicators. Therefore,a new grey matrix incidence degree model based on spatio-temporal features of panel data was constructed. After that,the properties of the model were discussed. Finally,the regional drought vulnerability index of eighteen cities in Henan Province was taken as the reference sequence. Nine factors influencing drought vulnerability index were studied. Results show that the grain yield per unit area of each city have the least effect on the vulnerability index of drought. The GDP of each city and the rural Engel coefficient of each city have the greatest influence on the drought vulnerability index,which Indicates that drought vulnerability is closely related to rural poverty.
作者
罗党
张慧慧
LUO Dang;ZHANG Huihui(School of Mathematics and Statistics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, Chin)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第3期61-67,共7页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401305
2016YFC0401303)
国家自然科学基金项目(71271086)
河南省科技攻关计划资助项目(182102310014)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目计划(18A630030)
关键词
区域旱灾脆弱性
面板数据
时空特征
灰色关联分析
regional drought vulnerability
panel data
temporal and spatial characteristics
grey incidence analysis
作者简介
罗党（1959-），男，河南汝南人，教授，博导，博士，从事灰色系统理论与决策分析方面的研究。E—mail：iamld99@163．com。;张慧慧（1992-），女，河南鹿邑人，硕士研究生，从事灰色系统理论与决策分析方面的研究。E-mail：zhanghuihuishi99@163．com。
