摘要
目的分析2012-2016年云南省129个县(区)梅毒疫情的空间分布特征。方法基于云南省129个县(区)网络报告的梅毒疫情数据和人口信息,导入Geo Da0.95i和Mapinfo7.8软件,进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和疫情描述,确定梅毒时空热点区域。结果 2012-2016年云南省报告的梅毒总病例数为63 798例,年发病率为27.23/10万。5年云南省梅毒病例空间均呈明显聚集性分布。各年空间自相关系数Moran's I均具有统计学意义。局部自相关分析结果提示,2012-2013年昆明市、红河州处于(高,高)区域,并且这些区域附近出现(低,高)区域,2014年开始出现两个新的(高,高)区域,分别是西双版纳州和昭通市,且自2014年开始昆明市、文山州、红河州和西双版纳州的(高,高)区域逐渐缩小,昭通市(高,高)区域持续存在。结论云南省梅毒发病存在明显的空间聚集,通过分析各聚集区的演变规律,将为云南省制定梅毒防控策略和评价防控措施效果提供参考。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of syphilis epidemic in 129 districts in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2016. Methods Geographic information system was established based on the data of syphilis epidemic and demographic information from online reporting system of 129 districts, municipalities and autonomous regions of Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2016. Global indication of spatial autocorrelation（GISA）and local indication of spatial autocorrelation（LISA）were analyzed with GeoDa0.95i and Mapinfo7.8 software, respectively. Results From 2012 to 2016,a total of 63 798 cases were reported with an average annual incidence of 27.23/100 000 individuals. There was a significant clustering of syphilis distribution in Yunnan Province.GISA coefficient Moran＇s I was statistically different. According to LISA analysis, from 2012 to 2013 Kunming and Honghe were in High-High region. There were some Low-High regions located near-by. From 2014, two regions Xishuangbanna and Zhaotong laid in High-High region. Since 2014, the High-High regions of Kunming, Wenshan, Honghe and Xishuangbanna had been shrinking, but Zhaotong had not changed and remained High-High regions. Conclusion There was a significant clustering of syphilis distribution in Yunnan Province. By analyzing the evolution of clustering pattern of various regions, it may be possible to predict syphilis occurrence and design strategy and evaluate the effects of such measures in Yunnan Province.
作者
李真晖
郑尔达
LI Zhenhui;ZHENG Erda(Yunnan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650000, Chin)
出处
《中国皮肤性病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期666-671,共6页
The Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology
关键词
梅毒
时空分析
空间自相关
地理信息系统
Syphilis
Spatial analysis
Local indication of apatial auto correlation
Geographic information system
作者简介
[通讯作者]郑尔达，E—mail：755130864@qq．com
