摘要
为研究在气候变化与人类活动双重影响下旬河年径流的突变特性,采用滑动平均法和滑动t检验分别分析旬河年径流的趋势和突变点,再结合旬河流域已有的降水变化规律分析径流突变的驱动因素。结果认为:旬河流域1956~2011年径流量存在"平缓下降—剧烈下降—急剧上升"的变化趋势;下降突变点发生在1975年,上升突变点发生在2002年,均通过显著性检验。进一步结合流域已有降水量规律得出结论:旬河流域降水量的变化是其年径流的趋势变化与突变点产生的主因。
In order to study the sudden changing characteristics of annual runoff in Xunhe river Basin under the double influence of the climate change and human activities, the article takes the sliding average method and the sliding T checking to analyze the trend and mutationpoints respectively in the basin. It is based on of the existed precipitation variation regulation in the Xunhe River Basin to analyzethe driving factors of runoff mutations. The results showed that there was a trend of ＂gentle descent-sharp-decline-sharp increase＂ in runoff from 1956 to 2011 in the basin. The decreasing mutation point occurred in 1975 and the rising mutation point occurred in 2002, the both mentioned all passed the significance test. Combined with the law of existed precipitation in the basin, it is concluded that the change of precipitation in the Basin is the major cause of the change of its annual runoff and the point of mutation.
作者
赵一杨
黄领梅
沈冰
Zhao Yiyang, Huang Lingrnei, Shen Bing(Water Conservancy and Hydropower school, Xi＇an University of Technology University Xi＇an 710048, Shaanx)
出处
《陕西水利》
2018年第2期1-3,共3页
Shaanxi Water Resources
基金
陕西省水利厅项目"淤地坝防洪预警决策支持系统的关键理论与技术研究"(2016slkj-12)
关键词
流域
年径流
滑动平均法
突变分析
Catchment
annual runoff
the sliding average method and the sudden analysis
作者简介
赵一杨（1996-），男，河北石家庄人，本科在读，主攻方向：水文与水资源工程。;[通讯作者]黄领梅（1972-），女，四川乐至人，博士，副教授，主要从事水文学及水资源研究。
