摘要
随着全球气候变化、人类活动对自然干扰程度加剧,以及防洪区人口和社会财富不断增长,变化环境下江河防洪技术面临新的难题。本文分析了大江大河防洪中面临的两个关键性问题:"守与弃"与"蓄与泄",及其面临的挑战,并针对性地提出了支撑大江大河防洪决策的关键技术,包括:优化模型构建与多目标求解技术,多目标均衡决策技术,以及支撑洪水"蓄泄"过程动态演算的流域高精度水文预报技术、河流水沙动力学模拟技术等。结合典型案例进一步对相关技术的运用进行了实证。
Climate change combined with more frequent human activities have strongly disturbed the natural water cycle. In addition, the increasing population and social wealth in flood protection zone caused new challenges for flood control for large rivers under the changing environment. This article reviewed the chal- lenges that the flood control for large rivers is facing the two key challenges as ＂retain or release＂ and ＂protect or abandon＂ problems. Furthermore, some key techniques utilized for decision making were present- ed, including： building of optimization model, multi-objective problem solving, balance decision-making techniques, as well as high precision prediction of basin runoff and sediment dynamical simulation support- ed by dynamic calculation of flood ＂retain or release＂. In the end, the application of related technologies was further verified with typical case studies.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期19-25,共7页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
关键词
大江大河
防洪决策
蓄与泄
守与弃
多目标
large river
decision making of flood control
retain or release
protect or abandon
multi-objective
作者简介
刘宁（1962-），男，辽宁丹东人，教授级高级工程师，主要从事水利水电工程的规划、设计和管理研究。E—mail：liuning@mwr．gov．cn
