摘要
基于拓展的STIRPAT模型以及1996—2015年期间的统计数据,采用偏最小二乘方法对京津冀地区的碳排放驱动因素进行了参数估计。研究发现:城市化水平、人口规模和富裕程度是京津冀区域碳排放量的主要影响因素,能源强度对两直辖市的碳排放增长有抑制效应,对河北省的碳排放抑制效应不显著;而工业水平和服务业水平对北京的碳排放增长都起到了重要作用,但对天津和河北省的影响并不突出。最后,根据研究结论,提出了相关管理与政策建议。
It is of great significance to the sustainable development of Jing-jin-ji Regions,when the research on the drivenelements of carbon emissions in Jing-jin-ji Regions is performed and the management guiding suggestions are given. In this paper,based on the extended STIRPAT model and the statistical data from 1996-2015,the driven-elements of carbon emissions in Jing-jin-ji Regions have been estimated using Partial least squares methods. The results showed that urbanization level,population size and affluence are the main influencing factors to the carbon emissions in Jing-jin-ji Regions. With energy intensity,there exists the great inhibitory effect to the increase of carbon emissions in Beijing and Tianjin,but it is not significant to Hebei province. Industrial level and service level are two key factors to the increase of carbon emissions in Beijing,however,there are few effects in Tianjin. Industrial level is important but service level is not significant in Hebei province. Finally,according to the conclusions and the real development requirements in Jing-jin-ji Regions,the management suggetions are proposed.
出处
《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》
2017年第6期514-519,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(16YJCZH077)
天津大学自主创新基金资助项目(0903066143)
关键词
京津冀区域
二氧化碳排放
驱动因素
STIRPAT模型
偏最小二乘方法
management guiding suggestions
STIRPAT model
statistical data
driven-elements
carbon emissions
squares methods
urbanization level
作者简介
唐志忠（1969-）,男,博士研究生.;通讯作者：李波,libo0410@tju.edu.cn.
