摘要
水文模型能将复杂的水文现象和过程进行概化,其不确定性研究已成为模型研究的重要方向之一。以半湿润地区洛河流域为研究区域,构建了基于垂向混合产流模型的流域产流模拟模型,采用GLUE方法并结合5项相关指标对构建的模型进行不确定性分析。结果表明:使用GLUE方法对垂向混合产流模型进行不确定性评估和参数优选过程中,在置信度为95%的前提下,模型预报区间的覆盖率达到87.5%,对称度S和T接近于0,数据模拟对称度良好。
Hydrological model can generalize the complicated hydrological phenomenon and processes, and the uncertainty of hydrological models is one of the important directions of the model research. Based on the 5 years＇runoff data of Luohe River Ba- sin in semi- humid area, we established a vertical mixed runoff hydrological model and analyzed its uncertainty by using GLUE method and combining with 5 relevant indicators. The results show that in uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization for the vertical mixed runoff model by GLUE method, under the confidence level of 95% , the model forecast interval coverage reaches 87.5% , the parameter S and T are closed to 0, which means that the simulated data have great degree of symmetry.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2017年第7期36-40,共5页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41371051
51421006)
中法合作基金NSFS-ANR项目(L41561134016)
中科院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-12)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501032)
作者简介
胡高辉，男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水文预报。E—mail：543037290@qq．com
通讯作者：杨涛，男，教授，研究方向为水文预报。E-mail：yang．tao@ms．xjb．ac．cn
