摘要
应用TOPMODEL模型,采用普适似然不确定估计(GLUE)方法,以属于半干旱地区的东湾流域为例,探讨径流系数在水文模拟与预报中的影响作用。通过其影响来提高径流系数较低地区的模拟精度,减小水文模拟与预报的不确定性。研究发现,模拟精度随着径流系数增大而提高,并在径流系数为0.5附近达到峰值后逐渐降低。基于此通过流量放大的改进方法进行东湾流域的水文模拟,改进后的结果有较大改善。
Taking the Dongwan Watershed in a semi-arid area as a case, the effects of runoff coefficient in hydrological modeling estimation and forecast are analyzed by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation （GLUE） method based on TOPMODEL for enhancing the simulation accuracy in the catchments with a lower runoff coefficient and reducing the uncertainty of hydrological modeling estimation and forecast. The results show that the simulation accuracy will be improved with the increase of runoff coefficient, and reached a peak when runoff coefficient is about 0.5 and then gradually decreased. By using this method, the hydrological estimation for Dongwan Watershed is greatly improved.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2011年第9期13-17,共5页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50809078
50839005)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3161395)
作者简介
黄淑娴（1987-），女，广东东莞人，硕士研究生，主要从事水文水资源方面的研究工作；
刘祖发（通讯作者）．
