摘要
选取1990—2009年江苏省人均GDP为样本数据,2010—2014年江苏省人均GDP作为验证数据,分别建立了ARIMA模型、指数平滑模型和多元回归模型对未来3年的江苏省人均GDP进行预测,然后在前3种单向预测方法基础上建立基于诱导有序加权几何平均(IOWGA)算子组合预测模型,再对此模型进行相应的效率评价.最后用组合预测模型对未来3年江苏省人均GDP进行预测.结果表明:相比于上述3种单项预测方法,基于IOWGA算子的组合预测模型的预测精度更高.预测结果表明2015—2017这3年,江苏人均GDP会继续增长,人民生活水平将继续提高.
By using the sample data of GDP per capital from 1990 to 2009 and the verification data of GDP percapital from 2010 to 2014 in Jiangsu province respectively, the authors of this paper established three singleforecasting models with ARIMA model, multiple regression and exponential smoothing to predict GDP per capi-tal in the next three years in Jiangsu province. Then the paper purposed the concept of induced ordered weight-ed geometric averaging（IOWGA） operators, established the new combination forecasting model, and made the ap-propriate evaluation on the basis of three kinds of the single forecasting model. Finally, GDP per capital in Jiang-su province in the next three years was predicted in the paper by the above combination forecasting model. Theresults show that the combination forecasting model is more accurate and effective. The forecasting results ofcombination forecasting model show that per capital GDP will be grown rapidly, and that people＇s living stan-dards will be further improved in the next three years.
出处
《常熟理工学院学报》
2017年第2期78-84,共7页
Journal of Changshu Institute of Technology
基金
国家社科基金项目"组合预测模型与方法创新及其优化理论研究"(12BTJ008)
作者简介
通信作者：涂洋,硕士研究生,研究方向：微分动力系统、经济系统动态分析,E-mail：18895689136@163.com.
