摘要
为了探讨珠三角农村产业发展对水环境的动态效应机理,基于产业生态化理论内涵,以东莞市水乡片为实证区域,在质性分析东莞市水乡片农村产业发展及水环境概况的基础上,运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数来重点考察产业规模、产业结构、技术进步这3个变量对水环境污染综合指数的动态冲击效应。结果表明,各变量间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,在短期内产业规模和产业结构对水环境有正反双向效应,但是从长期趋势上看依然会导致水环境质量的恶化,而技术进步因素则对降低水环境污染综合指数具有持续的正向效应。珠三角农村地区应该适度发展农村产业集群;优化农村产业结构,加快发展现代物流业和生产性服务业;持续提升农村产业技术创新能力。
In order to coordinate the total industrial development with the water environment, the paper probes empirically into the dynamic effect mechanism between them based on the Industrial-ecology Theory. The description analysis and case study methods are adopted in this paper to illustrate the mechanism of water-environment effects of rural industrial development. Then it takes Dongguan water region as the research area, applies the method of co-integration analysis and impulse response analysis based on VAR model to further explore the effects of industrial scale, industrial structure and production techniques on rural water pollution index and their dynamic characters. The results show that the industrial scale and industrial structure have positive effects on rural water pollution index, while production techniques can reduce rural water pollution index to some extent. Additionally these effects on rural water pollution index aforementioned are featured by continuity. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward several suggestions on how to realize the coordination of rural industrial development and water-environment protection in Pearl River Delta, the countermeasures are as follows： Firstly, develop the rural industries groups reasonably. Secondly, refine the rural industries structure. Thirdly, keep on enhance the innovation abilities of rural industries.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2016年第7期62-66,71,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划项目"低碳经济背景下农村水环境优化治理研究"(GD11CGL04)
关键词
农村产业发展
农村水环境
产业生态化
脉冲响应函数
rural industrial development
rural water environment
Industrial-ecology Theory
impulse response function
作者简介
甘建文（1992-），男，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为农村产业经济、水资源利用与治理。
通讯作者：刘小玲（1964-），女，研究员，主要研究方向为生态经济，农村经济与制度。E-mail：lxldx@126．com。
