摘要
本文将产业结构作为内生变量引入DMP模型,构建了在劳动者存在失业、退休、更换工作情况下青壮年和老年劳动者在两部类间的竞争就业模型,以此研究产业结构升级背景下延迟退休对劳动者工资及失业率的影响。模型结论表明:行业的空闲—失业比是影响社会就业的关键因素,延迟退休会通过该因素影响劳动者的工资和失业率。模拟研究发现:在中国当前情景下,"一刀切"和"渐进式"方案带来的影响并不相同,但是两者均可以减轻老龄化对产业结构升级的阻碍,在一定程度上促进产业结构的调整升级,可以说,延迟退休间接消除了人口老龄化的负面影响,并且老龄化程度越深,延迟退休对失业率的长期降低作用越明显。如果政府同时增加对技术创新、产业结构升级的扶持力度,延迟退休政策则可以更加平稳地推行。延迟退休与产业结构升级作为一对"政策组合",是老龄化背景下中国政府的"必要"之举。
This paper introduces the industrial structure as endogenous variables into the DMP model, and constructs a model which shows young adults and older workers compete between the two departments in the presence of unemployment, retirement, job replacement, to study how delay retirement affects workers＇ wages and the unemployment rate under the industrial structure upgrading context. The conclusions draw from the model show that leisure-unemployment ratio of industry is the key factor of influence on social employment, Delay retirement will affect the wages and unemployment rate by that factor. Model simulation results indicate that, under China＇s current situation, ＂one size fits all＂ and ＂progressive＂ programs bring difference effects, but both of them can reduce the impediment to the upgrading of industrial structure by aging, and can promote the adjustment of industrial structure upgrade. That is to say that the delay retirement indirectly eliminates the negative effects of population aging, and the more deep the aging degree be, the more obviously the long-term decreased effect that delay retirement could be on the unemployment rate. If the government at the same time increase the support for technological innovation, industrial structure upgrade, the policy of delay retirement can be carried out more smoothly. As a pair of ＂policy mix＂, delaying retirement and industrial structure upgrading are Chinese government ＂necessary＂ move under the background of the aging.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期67-82,共16页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划"延迟退休会提高青壮年失业率吗"(批准号NMOE2015110039)
国家社会科学基金青年项目"消费者对转基因食品安全性的‘主观态度’在模糊性决策框架下的解析与度量研究"(批准号15CJL020)
教育部中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"社会共同需求框架下财政基础理论的跨学科研究"(批准号024050315013)
作者简介
姚东旻（1985-），男，陕西汉中人，中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心讲师，经济学博士。电子邮箱：yaodongminn@163．com。中央财经大学中国金融发展研究院刘子先、张洲驰和税务学院王佑文对本文模型求解、数值模拟均有重要贡献（按贡献大小排序）。
