摘要
采用G20成员国1990年～2011年的面板数据，构建面板数据联立方程组模型，实证分析技术变化与产业结构演进的内生影响机制及全球经济非平衡增长的成因。结果表明：技术水平变化对产业结构演进具有显著推动作用，并且更加偏向于资本密集型的工业产业部门；产业结构演进对于技术变化具有明显推动作用，且对资本密集型部门的促进效应强于劳动密集型部门；技术水平差距及不平衡的技术变化会加剧国家或地区间的产业结构失衡，从而成为全球非平衡增长的根本原因之一。因此，应加快产业结构演进步伐，增加研发投入，调节国内市场供求结构，缓解内外经济增长失衡。
The paper employs Group Twenties＇ panel data from 1990 to 2011 to empirically analyze the endogenous relationship between technology change and industrial structure evolution, and thereby to address the cause of global unbalanced growth. The results indicate that technology change is significantly positive to the evolution of industrial structure and is more inclined to industry sectors with intensive capital. Mean- while, the evolution of industrial structure will promote technology change as well. In particular, specific promotional effects in sectors with intensive capital are larger than those in sectors with intensive labor. The gap of technology and the change of unbalanced technology will aggravate the imbalance of industrial struc- ture evolution among countries or regions, which becomes one of the main causes of global unbalanced growth. Hence, measures should be implemented to accelerate the evolution of industrial structure, increase the input of research and development, and adjust the structure of domestic demand and supply to relieve the internal and external unbalanced economic growth.
出处
《广东财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期4-15,共12页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(09&ZD033)
对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(14QD01)
关键词
技术变化
产业结构
内生影响机制
全球非平衡增长
面板联立方程组模型
20国集团
technology change
industrial structure
endogenous impact system
global unbalancedgrowth
panel data simultaneous equations model
Group Twenty （G20）
作者简介
陈福中（1983-），男，四川宜宾人，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院讲师，经济学博士：
陈诚（1987-），女，山东泰安人，中国发展研究基金会助理研究员，经济学博士。
