摘要
游牧民族的征服活动影响了世界历史的进程,但我们对其发生原因却所之甚少。本文使用公元前221年以来的中国历史气候与王朝数据,发现游牧民族征服的概率随着降雨稀少(以旱灾为代理变量)而上升,旱灾驱使游牧民族为了生存而进攻农耕汉族。而且,与王朝周期假说相一致,中原王朝越早于游牧政权建立,被后者征服的概率则越高。以上结果经过了一系列稳健性检验,包括使用中国与游牧民族的北方边界纬度作为另一被解释变量。
Nomadic conquests have helped to shape world history, yet we know little about why they occurred. Using climate and dynastic data from historical China since 221 BCE,we find that the likelihood of nomadic conquest increased with less rainfall proxied by drought disasters, which drove pastoral nomads to attack agrarian Chinese for survival. Moreover, consistent with the dynastic cycle hypothesis, the likelihood of China being conquered in creased when a Chinese dynasty was established earlier than a rival nomadic regime. These re- sults survive a variety of robustness checks, including using the latitude of the Sino-nomadic border as an alternative dependent variable.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期373-394,共22页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473149)
山东大学自主创新基金(IFW09135)
山东大学人文社科重大研究项目(12RWZD12)的资助
