摘要
针对初始排污权配置方案评价过程中存在的模糊性与不确定性问题,构建基于区间直觉模糊集的流域初始排污权配置方案综合评价模型。首先,引入区间模糊数来表达专家判断信息,通过多个专家的群体决策综合量化影响配置的社会、经济、资源、环境等因素;其次,结合MYCIN不精确推理模型和灰色关联方法构建推理决策模型,利用证据推理决策对已知信息进行挖掘和融合,并根据实质确定性因子最大化原则选择最佳方案;最后,以太湖流域初始排污权配置方案综合评价为例进行分析,结果表明该方法具有可行性与有效性。
In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty in the process of evaluating allocation schemes of the initial emission permits, an evaluation model is established based on the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set. Firstly, the interval fuzzy number is introduced to express the judgment information of experts,and the factors which influence the allocation such as society,economy,resources and environment synthetically quantified by multiple expert groups 'decision-making. Secondly, a reasoning model is established by combining the MYCIN inexact reasoning model with the grey incidence analysis method. The evidence reasoning decision-making is used to mine and fuse the given information,and the optimal scheme is chosen according to the maximization principle of substantial certainty factor. Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated by analyzing the allocation case of the initial emission permits in Taihu River basin.
出处
《水利经济》
2015年第1期27-31,74,共5页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金(41271537)
国家社会科学基金(12&ZD214)
关键词
初始排污权配置方案
区间直觉模糊集
灰色关联分析
综合评价
initial emission permit allocation scheme
interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set
grey incidence analysis
comprehensive evaluation
作者简介
吴凤平（1964-），男，江苏泰州人，教授，博士，主要从事水资源管理和有效配置研究。E—mail：wfp@hhu．edu．cn
通信作者：周进梅（1990-），女，江苏东台人，硕士研究生，从事规划与决策研究。E-mail：zhoujinmeil990@163．com
