基于语言信息的动态项目风险评价方法被引量：2

Method for dynamic risk evaluation based on language information

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摘要针对仅能提供专家语言信息输入的项目风险评价,提出风险现值和风险趋势的概念,处理时间维度下的不确定性所造成的项目动态风险问题。在项目风险评价中引入时间变量,综合考虑风险因素的分布情况,实现了基于时间变量的项目动态风险因素排序及风险趋势评价。最后用实例证明了动态项目风险评价方法的科学有效性以及评价结果的合理性。 For input information of proj ect risk assessment is only limited to expert language information, the concepts of risk present value and risk trends are proposed to process the dynamic risk issue caused by uncer-tainty according to the time dimension.Time variable is introduced into project risk assessment,considering risk event expected time of occurrence,duration,and distribution.Dynamic risk ranking and risk trends are ration-ally assessed based on the time variable.Finally,the effectiveness of the method and the rationality of the evalu-ation result are proved by a practical example.

作者刘安英魏法杰赵廷弟

机构地区北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出处《系统工程与电子技术》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2014年第12期2456-2460,共5页 Systems Engineering and Electronics

基金技术基础研究(Z132012A002)资助课题

关键词风险评价风险现值风险趋势时间变量 risk assessment risk present value risk trends time variable

分类号 F224.9 [经济管理—国民经济]

作者简介刘安英（1983-）女，博士后，主要研究方向为风险管理、项目评价。E-mail：anny1123@sohu．com 魏法杰（1954-），男，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为工程经济、项目管理。E—mail：weifajie@buaa．edu．cn 赵廷弟（1965-），男，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为可靠性与系统工程。E-mail：ztd@buaa．edu．cn

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