摘要
目的了解上海市浦东新区2013-2016年一二期梅毒的时空分布规律,为梅毒防控措施的科学制定提供参考依据。方法梅毒的发病数据来源于传染病报告信息系统,浦东新区各街镇的人口数来源于上海浦东统计年鉴,街镇的边界地图使用国家测绘局2015年版shp格式的地图数据。采用Excel 2010和SPSS 22整理分析数据,采用Sa TScan9.3的回顾法泊松模型进行时空聚集性扫描,采用Arc GIS 10.5将扫描结果可视化。检验水准取0.05。结果上海市浦东新区2013-2016年一二期梅毒的发病率分别为45.78/10万、40.91/10万、40.49/10万、39.09/10万,发病类型以一期梅毒为主,占58.57%,性别以男性为主,占64.14%,年龄以20～60岁的青壮年为主,占77.65%。发病时间具有一定的波动性,在每年的8月份左右出现发病的高峰,高峰月份的发病人数呈缓慢下降的趋势(趋势卡方检验X^2=0.001,P=0.047)。发病时间聚集出现在2013年1月1日-2013年9月21日期间。发病率相对较高的区域包括高桥、塘桥、三林、周浦等地,具有统计学意义的空间聚集区域有7个、时空聚集区域有3个(P<0.05)。结论通过对一二期梅毒的时空聚集性研究,可为梅毒防控措施的科学制定及卫生资源的优化配置提供一定参考。
Objective To understand the temporal and spatial distribution of syphilis during the period from 2013 to 2016 in Shanghai Pudong New Area, and to provide reference for the scientific formulation of syphilis control measures. Methods The incidence data of syphilis originated from the infectious disease report information system. The population of town in Pudong New District was derived from the Shanghai Pudong Statistical Yearbook, and the town boundary map was used in the map data of the 2015 edition of shp file format of the State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping. Using Excel 2010 and SPSS 22 to collate analysis data, and using the retrospective method of SaTScan 9.3 to conduct spatio-temporal clustering scans, ArcGIS10.5 was used to visualize the scan results. α=0.05. Results The incidence of syphilis in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2013 to 2016 was 45.78 per 100,000, 40.91 per 100,000, 40.49 per 100,000 and 39.09 per 100,000. The incidence of syphilis was main(58.57%), Gender is dominated by males(64.14%), and age is dominated by young adults between 20 and60 years old(77.65%). The time of onset has a certain degree of volatility. The peak of onset occurs around August of each year, and the number of people suffering from the onset of peak months is slowly declining(trend chi-square test X^2=0.001,P=0.047). The temporal clustering occurred between January 1, 2013 and September 21, 2013. The areas with relatively high incidence include Gaoqiao, Tangqiao, Sanlin and Zhoupu. There are 7 statistically significant spatial clusters and 3 temporal and spatial clusters(P <0.05). Conclusion Through the research on the temporal and spatial aggregation of primary and secondary syphilis, it provides some reference for the scientific formulation of syphilis control measures and the optimal allocation of health resources.
作者
张民
刘长超
杨朝华
ZHANG Min;LIU Chang-chao;YANG Chao-hua(Datuan Town Community Health Service Center of Pudong New Area,Shanghai,201311,China)
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第2期211-215,共5页
Modern Preventive Medicine
关键词
梅毒
流行情况
时空扫描
聚集性
Syphilis
Epidemic situation
Space-time scanning
Aggregation
作者简介
张民(1980-),男,硕士,主治医师,研究方向:公共卫生.
