摘要
当前,中美贸易摩擦出现了一些新特征,即中美之间的"威胁-反制"角力逐步升级,那么这些新的举动会对中美两国及国际经济产生怎样的影响呢?文章采用多区域CGE模型对中美贸易摩擦的国际经济影响展开量化评估,根据贸易摩擦的严重程度设置了六种情景,模拟了主要国家宏观经济指标的变动情况。结果发现:(1)从实际GDP、居民福利、贸易条件和进出口贸易等视角看,贸易摩擦均是双输的结果,但中国受损程度更高;(2)中国的贸易报复措施虽不利于美国的经济增长和福利改善,但中国自身的经济也可能因此遭受二次伤害;(3)贸易摩擦会带来明显的贸易转移效应,中美两国间的直接贸易会大幅减少,但间接贸易会明显增加;(4)美国的贸易制裁不能有效解决其贸易失衡问题,虽然美国对华贸易赤字大幅缩减,但其对其他国家的贸易赤字有所增加。文章从定量层面揭示了贸易摩擦对中美两国的潜在影响,认为贸易战不是两国的最优选择,由此建议中美两国通过谈判妥善解决彼此的分歧。
The United States after President Trump taking office shows a strong intention of trade protectionism.It launched the "301 investigation"on China and threatened to impose extra 25% penalty tariffs on Chinese products.Unwilling to show weakness,China also announced to take retaliatory measures.As two great trade powers in the world,trade conflicts between the United States and China will inevitably strike the existing trade system and drag down the global economic growth.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze economic impacts of trade frictions on both two countries and fluctuation effects on other countries to explore the degree of distortion that caused by trade frictions to the international trade system.What kind of losses will trade sanctions of the United States bring to China and what will be the effect of China's countermeasures are problems that are highly attended by decision-makers and need to be solved urgently. With a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)and the latest database GTAP 9.0,this paper quantitatively sets six kinds of policy scenarios according to the degree of seriousness of trade frictions,and simulates variations of macro-economic indexes of main countries from perspectives of real GDP,residents'welfare and import and export trade to discuss the impacts of different trade conflicts on every industry in China.The main conclusions of the paper are:(1)judging from real GDP,residents'welfare and import and export trade,Sino- US trade friction is a lose-lose situation to both countries while China will suffer more losses;(2)China taking trade countermeasures towards the United States will deteriorate the trade conditions of the United States and cause great decline of its export to China;affected by such influence,residents'welfare in the United States will become worse and economic growth will be slowed down,which will also bring a second-time damage to China;(3)Sino-US trade frictions may benefit other countries at the cost of their benefits;there may be economic growth and welfare improvement in varying degrees in other countries;(4)trade frictions will bring significant trade transfer effects,that is,direct trade between China and the United States will be re- duced greatly while indirect trade between them will be significantly increased;(5)trade sanctions of the United States cannot fundamentally solve the trade imbalance problem of the United States;its trade deficits with other countries will still increase even though these with China will be reduced. The marginal contributions of this paper can be elaborated from three aspects.Firstly,this paper quantitatively evaluates international economic effects of Sino-US trade frictions,calculates specific impacts of different trade sanctions of the United States on China,and estimates implementation effects of different counter- measures of China.Research results are of great significance for China taking proper measures to tackle potential threats of trade frictions.Secondly,this paper analyzes overflow effects of Sino-US trade frictions from the perspective of trade transfer,and estimates potentials of China and the United States for indirect trade through third countries after trade frictions.The findings are helpful for China to strengthen international cooperation so that negative impacts of trade sanctions can be reduced.Thirdly,this paper estimates the impacts of trade frictions on different industries in China,which is helpful for China to find out industries with serious damages as soon as possible and enact effective industrial protection measures.
作者
崔连标
朱磊
宋马林
郑海涛
Cui Lianbiao;Zhu Lei;Song Malin;Zheng Haitao(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Economics &Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第12期4-17,共14页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71503001
71471001)
安徽财经大学校级科研项目(ACKY1802ZDA)
作者简介
崔连标(1987-),男,安徽蒙城人,安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院副教授;朱磊(1983-),男,安徽合肥人,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院副教授;宋马林(1972-),男,安徽蚌埠人,安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院教授、研究生处处长;郑海涛(1978-),男,湖北宜昌人,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院副教授。
