摘要
碳排放量、能源消费量、人口和经济增长存在着较为密切的关系,而作为清洁二次能源的电能,其消费使用量的多少影响着能源消费结构,进而影响着能源消费量。因此,电力消费强度和碳排放量之间存在着何种联系,是电力工业低碳之路需要考虑的问题。利用随机性环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology,STRIPAT),通过最小二乘回归方法测算碳排放量、人口、人均国民生产总值、电力消费量和能源消费量之间的碳排放影响系数。研究发现,人口、人均国民生产总值以及电力消费量和能源消费量之间的比值每发生1%的变化,将引起碳排放总量1.207%、0.901%以及?1.188%的变化,因此,在未来我国人口增长趋势放缓、国民经济保持7%以上较快发展的情况下,减少碳排放的途径应该从技术因素入手,通过提高电能占使用能源的比率、提高化石能源的使用效率和发展可再生能源来进行。
There are close relationship among carbon emission, energy consumption, population and economic growth, and as the clean secondary energy source the consumption of electricity impacts the structure of energy consumption, and further impacts the energy consumption, therefore, that what kind of relation between electricity consumption intensity and carbon emission exist is an issue needed to be considered in the low-carbonization of electric power sector. Using stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology （STRIPAT） model, the carbon emission impacting coefficients among carbon emission, population, per capita GNP, electricity consumption and energy consumption are calculated by partial least squares regression. The research finds that each 1% variation in the ratio of population, per capita GNP and electricity consumption to energy consumption leads to 1.207%, 0.901% and -1.188%variation in the total carbon emission, thus under the condition of population growth slowed and the growth of national economy kept above 7%, the reduction of carbon emission should be started from improving technical ability, namely raising the proportion of electricity utilization in energy consumption, improving utilization efficiency of fossil fuels and developing renewable energy sources.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期628-632,共5页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71071052
71071054)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(12QN27)~~
作者简介
王建军（1981），男，博士，讲师，研究方向为电力经济、电力负荷预测，E-mail：wangjianjunhd@126．com；
李莉（1983），女，博士，讲师，研究方向为循环经济等。
