摘要
本文首先以引力模型为基础,通过倍差法引入衡量贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应的虚拟变量构建了一个基本模型,然后运用Heckman样本选择模型处理零贸易流量导致的内生性问题,最后对混合OLS方法与Heckman两步法做了比较。研究发现,中国农产品存在显著的贸易创造效应,但却没有显著的计量结果表明存在贸易转移效应,而运用混合OLS的方法将会高估实际的贸易创造效应;中国与东盟农产品领域的合作水平相对落后于世界水平,存在很大的发展潜力。
Agricultural product is one of the five major cooperation programs in CAFTA. So evaluating the effect of the implementation of CAFTA in agricultural products precisely is meaningful to the development of Chinese agriculture. Based on the gravity model,this paper adopts a difference-in-difference estimator to incorporate the binary variables representing trade crating effects and trade diversion effects respectively,and then implements the Heckman sample selection model to correct for zero trade flow appearing in our data. Finally,this paper offers a table to compare the results between what this paper implements and the pooled OLS method. The results show that trade creating effects are positive and statistically significant,which means the implementation of CAFTA does improves the trade of Chinese agricultural products and therefore welfare gains. However,there is no statistically significant result proving the existence of trade diversion. Besides,if the pooled OLS method is implemented,the trade effect will be over-estimated. Another important conclusion is that the cooperation in agriculture between China and ASEAN falls greatly behind that between China and the rest of the world.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期19-26,110,共8页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
