摘要
近年来,随着全球政治经济不确定性的增强,全球贸易保护主义抬头,全球化进程明显受阻,全球贸易和金融体系受到冲击影响。那么,在当前的全球贸易发展环境下,双边自由贸易区建设对全球自由贸易体系的影响尤为重要。本文以中国—东盟自由贸易区为考察对象,以中国—东盟2002年签署《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》作为政策实施节点,运用合成控制法,对中国—东盟自由贸易区建设的"早期收获"进行政策评估。实证结论表明,中国—东盟自贸区建设这一政策的"早期收获"效应显著,特别是中国对东盟出口的贸易尤为显著。2003年及以后,中国—东盟自贸区建设使得中国向东盟的出口贸易规模逐年增加,2015年这一政策使得中国出口东盟的规模提升了5.13%。但是,这一政策对出口贸易和进口贸易的影响效果有明显差异,存在非对称性。
In recent years,with the increase of global political and economic uncertainty,Global trade protectionism has risen,the process of globalization has been obviously hindered,and the global trade and financial system has been affected.Then,in the current global trade development environment,the construction of bilateral free trade area has a particularly important impact on the global free trade system.This paper takes the ChinaASEAN Free Trade Area as the research object,takes the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN signed by China-ASEAN in2002 as the policy implementation,and uses the Synthetic Control Method to evaluate the"early harvest" of the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.The empirical conclusion shows that the policy of building China-ASEAN FTA has a significant "early harvest" effect,especially China’s export to ASEAN.Since 2003,the construction of ChinaASEAN Free Trade Area has increased the scale of China’s export to ASEAN year by year.In2015,this policy has increased the scale of China’s export to ASEAN by 5.13%.However,the effect of this policy on export and import is obviously different and asymmetric.
作者
刘璐
Liu lu(Changchun Central Sub-branch,the People’s Bank of China)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2020年第4期15-29,共15页
Financial Development Review
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“全球经济失衡的调整机制及其对中国经济的影响研究(17CGJ028)”的资助
关键词
自由贸易区
合成控制法
政策评估
中国—东盟
Free Trade Area
Synthetic Control Method
Policy Evaluation
China-ASEAN
作者简介
刘璐,经济学博士,中国人民银行长春中心支行调查统计处,Email:Hulmhi@126.com
