摘要
具有较高精度的水文中长期预报成果是水电站开展优化调度的重要依据。介绍了水文中长期预报中模糊数学方法的应用,侧重阐述了模糊模式识别的直接法和间接法的理论基础,及其在湖北省陆水水库年入库水量预报中的应用。研究结果表明,模糊识别方法的预报合格率尚可,克服了传统水文预报方法过多依赖于预报人员经验的缺点,而其模糊模式类型的选择还有优化的空间。
Medium and long - term hydrological forecast resuhs are important basis for optimized operation of a hydropower sta- tion. We present an application of fuzzy mathematics methodology in medium and long - term hydrological forecast, focusing on the theoretical principles of direct method and indirect method of fuzzy pattern recognition as well as its application in annual in- flow forecast of Lushui Reservoir. The results show that the qualified forecast rate of the fuzzy recognition method is acceptable, and the method overcomes the traditional method＇s disadvantage of mainly depending on forecast experiences. It is pointed out that there is much optimization space for type selection of fuzzy pattern.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2013年第18期53-55,65,共4页
Yangtze River
关键词
中长期水文预报
模糊数学
模式识别
优化调度
陆水水库
medium and long - term hydrological forecast
fuzzy mathematics
pattern recognition
optimized operation
Lush-ui Reservoir
作者简介
作者简介：郑桂平，男，工程师，主要从事防汛、水库调度及水资源管理工作。E—mail：lszhenggp@sina．com
