摘要
利用北京国家级野外气象观测站历年气温和降水实测资料(1951—2006年),用回归分析、趋势线等方法分析北京近56年来气温和降水的年际、季节变化特征。分析结果表明:(1)近56年来,北京平均气温总体呈上升趋势,年均气温线性倾向率为0.41℃/10a,56年中温度增加约为2.3℃。气温季节变化趋势与年际变化一致,都呈上升趋势。四季中,冬季升温趋势最明显,平均0.057℃/a;春季和秋季次之,分别为0.047℃/a和0.036℃/a;夏季最弱,平均为0.028℃/a;(2)近56年来,北京年降水量呈减少趋势,年降水量线性倾向率为-4.96 mm/10a,56年减少约为27.78 mm,气候变干趋势明显。降水量季节变化存在差异,除春季呈现微弱的增加趋势外,夏季、秋季与冬季的变化趋势与年际变化趋势一致,呈减少趋势。夏季降水量减少趋势最明显,平均为15 mm/a;秋季和冬季次之,平均为1.5 mm/a和0.2 mm/a。
Based on the temperature and precipitation data during 1951--2006 of national outdoor weather station in Beijing, annual and seasonal variation characteristics were analyzed with regression and trend lines. The results show that： （1）General temperature of Beijing showed ascendant trend with rate of 0.41℃/10a and the added value was 2.3℃. The temperature seasonal change showed a rising trend, which similar to annual variation. Winter had a highest added value with rate of 0.057℃/a. Spring and Autumn had higher added values with rates of 0.047℃/a and 0.036℃/a. Summer had the lowest added value with rate of 0.028℃/a. （2）The annual precipitation of Beijing during 56 years decreased by a rate of 4.96 mm/10a, with the absolute value of 27.78 mm. There are differences between seasonal precipitation change. Spring had a weak increasing. On the opposite, seasonal precipitation change had similar trend to annual precipitation change among summer, Autumn and Winter. Summer obviously reduced with rate of 15 mm/a. Autumn and Winter clearly reduced with rates of 1.5 mm/a and 0.2 mm/a.
出处
《北京水务》
2013年第3期36-41,共6页
Beijing Water
关键词
北京
气温变化
降水变化
特征分析
Beijing temperature changes precipitation changes feature analysis
作者简介
杨浩（1983～），男，工程师。
