摘要
构建郑西高铁对"郑洛工业走廊"的影响指标框架,基于灰色预测模型和多元回归模型,预测出2009年和2010年"无"郑西高铁时,郑州市、洛阳市的指标数据,采用"有无对比法",分析了郑西高铁对郑洛两市的贡献率:2009年和2010年,郑州和洛阳"有"郑西高铁比"无"郑西高铁的经济联系强度分别多了10个单位和15个单位,高铁贡献率分别为9.61%和10.96%;在绝对达到时间上,节省效率分别是34.27%和32.86%,旅客加权平均时间降低约14.18%和19.8%;对三大产业变化也产生了不同程度的影响.区域间高铁通道促进了"同城化"现象发展,加快沿线城市产业布局升级和整合,实现区域间人才、信息等要素快速流动,带动相关产业由经济发达地区向欠发达地区转移.但是,应该注意高铁建成初期所产生的"极化效应"和后期"涓滴效应"的经济资源配置关系.
The influence economic index framework of ＂Zheng-Xi high-speed rail＂ was constructed. Without ＂Zheng- Xi high-speed rail＂, the authors uses ＂grey forecasting model＂ predicting the data of Zhengzhou and Luoyang in 2009 and 2010. Adopting to ＂with and without comparsion method＂, we analyze each index contribution rate. In 2009 and 2010,Zhengzhou and Luoyang＇s economic relation force increase 10 units and 15 units respectively, and the contribution of high speed railway is 9.61% and 10.96% respectively. On absolute reach time, compared with the other two kinds of mode of transportation,which saves time 49 min and 46 min respectively, and the passenger weighted average time reduced by 14.18% and 19.8% respectively,which also produces the different influences of the third industry. Zheng-Xi high-speed rail promotes the ＂urban integration＂ phenomenon, speeds up the city along the industrial layout upgrade and integration, realizes regional talent, information elements flow, and drives related industries to flow from less developed regions to developed areas. But we should pay attention to ＂the polarization effect＂ and later ＂a trickle-down effect＂ relationship.
出处
《河南科学》
2013年第4期558-564,共7页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41001072)
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790013)
关键词
“有无对比”
灰色预测
郑西高铁
郑洛工业走廊
with and without comparsion method
grey forecasting model
Zheng-Xi high-speed rail
Zheng- Luo industrial corridor
作者简介
陈肖飞（1986-），男，河南三门峡人，硕士研究生，主要从事区域规划与发展、城市地理学研究
通信作者：艾少伟（1978-），男，回族，河南禹州人，副教授，硕士研究生导师，博士（后），主要从事创新地理与区域发展研究.
