摘要
苹果花期冻害风险评估及预测对促进苹果产业合理规划布局,减轻气象灾害损失有十分重要的意义。以冻害风险灾损率为指标,对陕西苹果基地县的冻害发生风险进行了评估,开发了基于数值预报模式和G IS技术的花期冻害中短期预测模型,将冻害温度预报扩大到乡镇级并实现了业务化解释应用。
The risk assessment and prediction of apple blooming freezing injury is of great importance in promoting the rational planning and layout of apple industry and reducing the meteorological disaster losses. Here the index of freezing injury risk rate was taken as an index to assess the risk of freezing injury in apple base counties of Shaanxi Province. Based on the numerical weather prediction model and GIS technology the medium-term and short-term blooming freezing injury forecast models were developed, which make the temperature forecast areas of freezing injury extend to county level and realize the operational explanation application.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期219-225,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
陕西省"13115"科技创新工程公共服务平台建设项目(2010FWPT-17)
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-4)
关键词
苹果
花期冻害
风险
预测
apple
blossom freeze
risk
weather forecast
作者简介
屈振江（1977-`）男，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象研究．E-mail：nju_qzj@hotmail．com
