摘要
分析了我国人口城市化与房地产市场的关系,利用相关分析、因果分析、脉冲和方差分析,发现人口城市化率短期内受房地产市场影响较大,长期内房地产市场要受人口城市化速度的影响;研究了人口系统与房地产系统的熵流关系,利用静态和动态协调度定量分析,发现两个系统取得了较好协调发展效果,但未来协同效应存在下降的可能.
This paper analyzed the relationship of population urbanization and the real estate market with correlation analysis, causal analysis, impulse response and variance decomposition, and found that the population urbanization rate has a short-term impact on the real estate market, while real estate has long-term effects on the rate. The paper also studied the entropy flow between population and real estate system, and with the use of static and dynamic coordination quantitative analysis, found that the two systems had formed a synergic effect, which may be weakened in the future.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第15期199-207,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(71173213)
中国科学院预测科学研究中心项目(0829015ED2)
关键词
人口城市化
房地产
关联分析
协同
population urbanization
real estate
correlation analysis
synergy
