摘要
本文分别构造了农户生产行为函数和农户消费需求行为函数,并结合相关约束条件,利用随机离散动态规划理论,推导出农户消费需求和生产行为的贝尔曼方程,进而求解出用于分析中国粮食价格传导机制的DSGE模型。实证结论表明:从短期来看,农户外出务工工资上调会对粮食生产造成负面影响,并使得粮食价格面临上涨压力;但是从中长期来看,上调农户外出务工工资使得农户总体收入增加,从而有利于粮食生产的固定资产投资增加,最终使得粮食产量供给增加和粮食价格下降。增加政府对农民的转移支付,可以粮食总产量上升、粮食价格下降;同时使得农户的自产粮食消费需求、非粮食消费需求和农户消闲时间均增加,从而提高农户消费效用。
The paper constructs behavioral functions of farmers＇ consumption and production respectively and derived Bellman equation with the theory of discrete stochastic dynamic programming thereby getting DSGE model to analyze price transmission mechanism of China＇s food price. Empirical findings show that. in short term, an increase in price of wages for migrant farmers will have a negative impact on food production and cause food prices under upward pressure. However, in long term, the price increase can increase overall income of farmers, which will pro- mote investment of fixed assets in food production and make total food production go up- ward and food price downward. By increasing government transfer payments to farmers, total food production can be increased and food prices decreased. At the same time, consumption demand on self-produced food, non-food and leisure time of farmers can be increased, which will improve their consumption utility.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第7期92-103,共12页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
科技部专项课题"当前技术经济社会发展中重大问题的系统模拟与综合集成研究"阶段性成果之一
"中国社会科学院数量经济学重点学科建设工程"和"中国社会科学院经济政策与模拟重点研究室"项目的资助
关键词
粮食价格
动态随机一般均衡
农户行为
Food Price
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
Farmers＇Behavior
